2021骞�涓崡璨�(c谩i)缍�(j墨ng)鏀挎硶澶у(xu茅)纰╁＋鐮旂┒鐢熷叆瀛�(xu茅)鑰冭│鑰冪爺澶х侗

806 缍�(j墨ng)婵�(j矛)瀛�(xu茅)锛堝畯銆佸井瑙€锛�
涓€銆佽€冭│鎬ц唱(zh矛)
缍�(j墨ng)婵�(j矛)瀛�(xu茅)锛堝畯銆佸井瑙€锛夋槸鎴戞牎鎳�(y墨ng)鐢ㄧ稉(j墨ng)婵�(j矛)瀛�(xu茅)鎵€鏈夊皥妤�(y猫)绲�(t菕ng)涓€鍛介銆佺当(t菕ng)涓€鑰冭│銆佺当(t菕ng)涓€闁卞嵎鐨勭ⅸ澹�
鐮旂┒鐢熷叆瀛�(xu茅)鑰冭│鍒濊│鐨勮法闄㈣嚜鍛介绉戠洰銆�
浜�銆佽€冭│鐩(bi膩o)
瑭茬鐩偤閬告嫈鎳�(y墨ng)鐢ㄧ稉(j墨ng)婵�(j矛)瀛�(xu茅)鐨勫(xu茅)琛�(sh霉)纰╁＋鐮旂┒鐢熻€岃ō(sh猫)缃紝瑕佹眰鑰冪敓灏�(du矛)瑗挎柟缍�(j墨ng)婵�(j矛)瀛�(xu茅)鐨勫熀鏈
蹇�銆佸師鐞嗗拰鎬濇兂鍏锋湁杓冨ソ鐨勭悊瑙ｇ▼搴︼紝骞惰兘澶犻潏娲婚亱(y霉n)鐢ㄦ墍瀛�(xu茅)瀹忓井瑙€缍�(j墨ng)婵�(j矛)瀛�(xu茅)鐭ヨ瓨(sh铆)鍒嗘瀽銆佽В姹哄(sh铆)
闅涙噳(y墨ng)鐢ㄥ晱椤屻€�
48

 
 
涓�銆佽€冭│褰㈠紡鍜岃│鍗风祼(ji茅)妲�(g貌u)
锛堜竴锛夎│鍗锋豢鍒嗗強鑰冭│鏅�(sh铆)闁�
鏈│鍗锋豢鍒嗙偤 150 鍒�锛岃€冭│鏅�(sh铆)闁撶偤180 鍒嗛悩
锛堜簩锛夌瓟椤屾柟寮�
绛旈鏂瑰紡鐐洪枆鍗�銆佺瓎瑭�銆傝│鍗风敱瑭﹂鍜岀瓟椤岀礄绲勬垚锛岀瓟妗堝繀闋堝鍦ㄧ瓟椤岀礄涓娿€�
锛堜笁锛夎│鍗风殑绲�(ji茅)妲�(g貌u)鑸囬鍨�
鍘熷墖涓婂井瑙€缍�(j墨ng)婵�(j矛)瀛�(xu茅)鍜屽畯瑙€缍�(j墨ng)瀛�(xu茅)鍚勫崰 50%锛岄鍨嬬偤鍚嶈瑙ｉ噵銆佽鲸鏋愯垏绨�(ji菐n)绛�銆佷綔鍦栬垏鎺ㄥ皫(d菐o)銆�
瑷�(j矛)绠�銆佽珫杩�銆佹潗鏂欏垎鏋愮瓑銆�
鍥�銆佽€冭│鍏�(n猫i)瀹�
锛堝井瑙€閮ㄥ垎锛�
绗竴绔� 瑗挎柟缍�(j墨ng)婵�(j矛)瀛�(xu茅)姒傝珫
涓€銆佽タ鏂圭稉(j墨ng)婵�(j矛)瀛�(xu茅)瑾殑姝峰彶鑸囩櫦(f膩)灞�
浜�銆佽タ鏂圭稉(j墨ng)婵�(j矛)瀛�(xu茅)鐨勭爺绌跺皪(du矛)璞�銆佹柟娉�
绗簩绔� 闇€姹傝垏渚涚郸
涓€銆侀渶姹�銆侀渶姹傚嚱鏁�(sh霉)銆侀渶姹傚畾鐞�
浜�銆佷緵绲�銆佷緵绲﹀嚱鏁�(sh霉)銆佷緵绲﹀畾鐞�
涓�銆佸潎琛�銆佸潎琛″児(ji脿)鏍�銆佷緵姹傛洸绶氳畩鍕�(d貌ng)
鍥�銆佸収(n猫i)鐢熻畩閲忋€佸鐢熻畩閲忓強鍏跺垎鏋�
浜�銆佸綀鎬у強褰遍熆鍥犵礌
鍏�銆佸児(ji脿)鏍奸檺鍒跺垎鏋�
涓�銆佽洓缍�(w菐ng)妯″瀷
绗笁绔� 鏁堢敤璜�
涓€銆佹晥鐢ㄧ悊璜�銆佹秷璨�(f猫i)鑰呭墿浣欏強鍧囪　鍒嗘瀽
浜�銆佸亸濂�銆佺劇宸暟鏇茬窔鑸囬倞闅涙浛浠ｇ巼
涓夈€侀爯(y霉)绠楃窔
鍥�銆佹秷璨�(f猫i)鑰呭潎琛″垎鏋�
浜�銆佸児(ji脿)鏍艰畩鍖栧拰鏀跺叆璁婂寲灏�(du矛)鍧囪　褰遍熆
鍏�銆佹浛浠ｆ晥鎳�(y墨ng)鑸囨敹鍏ユ晥鎳�(y墨ng)
涓�銆佷笉纰哄畾鎬с€佹湡鏈涙晥鐢ㄨ垏棰�(f膿ng)闅�(xi菐n)
绗洓绔� 鐢熺敘(ch菐n)璜�
涓€銆佸粻鍟嗙殑姒傚康鍙婄洰妯�(bi膩o)
浜�銆佺敓鐢�(ch菐n)鍑芥暩(sh霉)鍙婂舰寮�
涓夈€佷竴绋彲璁婅绱犵敓鐢�(ch菐n)鍑芥暩(sh霉)
鍥�銆佺附鐢�(ch菐n)閲�銆佸钩鍧囩敘(ch菐n)閲忓拰閭婇殯鐢�(ch菐n)閲忓惈缇╄垏闂�(gu膩n)绯�
浜斻€侀倞闅涘牨(b脿o)閰仦娓涜(gu墨)寰�
鍏�銆佺煭鏈熺敓鐢�(ch菐n)涓夊€�(g猫)闅庢
涓冦€佸叐绋彲璁婅绱犵殑鐢熺敘(ch菐n)鍑芥暩(sh霉)
鍏�銆佺瓑鐢�(ch菐n)閲忔洸绶�
涔�銆侀倞闅涙妧琛�(sh霉)鏇夸唬鐜�
鍗�銆佺瓑鎴愭湰绶�
鍗佷竴銆佹渶鍎�(y艒u)鐢熺敘(ch菐n)瑕佺礌绲勫悎
鍗佷簩銆佽(gu墨)妯″牨(b脿o)閰�
绗簲绔� 鎴愭湰璜�
涓€銆佸悇绋垚鏈殑姒傚康銆佺浉浜掗棞(gu膩n)绯�
浜�銆佸悇绋煭鏈熸垚鏈洸绶氶毃鐢�(ch菐n)閲忚畩鍖栫殑闂�(gu膩n)绯�
涓�銆佸悇绋煭鏈熸垚鏈洸绶氫箣闁撶殑鐩镐簰闂�(gu膩n)绯�
49

 
 
鍥涖€佸悇绋暦(zh菐ng)鏈熸垚鏈洸绶氶毃鐢�(ch菐n)閲忚畩鍖栫殑闂�(gu膩n)绯�
浜�銆侀暦(zh菐ng)鏈熸垚鏈洸绶氳垏鐭湡鎴愭湰鏇茬窔鐨勭浉浜掗棞(gu膩n)绯�
鍏€佽(gu墨)妯＄稉(j墨ng)婵�(j矛)銆佸収(n猫i)鍦ㄧ稉(j墨ng)婵�(j矛)鑸囧収(n猫i)鍦ㄤ笉缍�(j墨ng)婵�(j矛)銆佸鍦ㄧ稉(j墨ng)婵�(j矛)鑸囧鍦ㄤ笉缍�(j墨ng)婵�(j矛)鐨勫惈缇�
涓�銆佹渶鍎�(y艒u)鐢�(ch菐n)鍑虹巼鑸囨渶鍎�(y艒u)瑕�(gu墨)妯�
绗叚绔� 瀹屽叏绔�(j矛ng)鐖�(zh膿ng)甯傚牬(ch菐ng)
涓€銆佸粻鍟嗚垏甯傚牬(ch菐ng)椤炲瀷鐨勫惈缇╄垏鐗瑰緛
浜�銆佸畬鍏ㄧ(j矛ng)鐖�(zh膿ng)甯傚牬(ch菐ng)鐨勬浠�
涓�銆佸畬鍏ㄧ(j矛ng)鐖�(zh膿ng)甯傚牬(ch菐ng)鐨勬敹鐩婃洸绶�
鍥�銆佸粻鍟嗗(sh铆)鐝�(xi脿n)鐭湡鍧囪　鍜岄暦(zh菐ng)鏈熷潎琛＄殑姊濅欢
浜�銆佸畬鍏ㄧ(j矛ng)鐖�(zh膿ng)甯傚牬(ch菐ng)寤犲晢鐨勭煭鏈熶緵绲︽洸绶氳垏闀�(zh菐ng)鏈熶緵绲︽洸绶�
鍏�銆佺敓鐢�(ch菐n)鑰呭墿浣�
绗竷绔� 涓嶅畬鍏ㄧ(j矛ng)鐖�(zh膿ng)甯傚牬(ch菐ng)
涓€銆佸鏂风殑鐗归粸(di菐n)鍜屾垚鍥�
浜�銆佸鏂峰粻鍟嗙殑闇€姹傛洸绶氳垏鏀剁泭鏇茬窔
涓�銆佸鏂峰粻鍟嗙殑鐭湡鍧囪　鑸囬暦(zh菐ng)鏈熷潎琛�
鍥涖€佸鏂峰粻鍟嗙殑渚涚郸鏇茬窔鑸囧児(ji脿)鏍兼瑕�
浜�銆佸鏂风(j矛ng)鐖�(zh膿ng)甯傚牬(ch菐ng)鐨勬浠�
鍏�銆佸鏂风(j矛ng)鐖�(zh膿ng)寤犲晢鐨勯渶姹傛洸绶氳垏渚涚郸鏇茬窔
涓冦€佸鏂风(j矛ng)鐖�(zh膿ng)寤犲晢鐨勭煭鏈熷潎琛¤垏闀�(zh菐ng)鏈熷潎琛�
鍏�銆佸闋鏂峰競鍫�(ch菐ng)鐨勬蹇佃垏鐗瑰緛
涔�銆佸彜璜炬ā鍨嬭垏鏂▉榻婃ā鍨�
鍗�銆佸崥寮堣珫鍒濇鐭ヨ瓨(sh铆)
绗叓绔� 瑕佺礌鍍�(ji脿)鏍兼焙瀹氱殑闇€姹傛柟闈�
涓€銆佺敓鐢�(ch菐n)瑕佺礌鍙婂叾鍫�(b脿o)閰�
浜�銆佸紩鑷撮渶姹�
涓�銆佸畬鍏ㄧ(j矛ng)鐖�(zh膿ng)寤犲晢鑸囪常鏂瑰鏂峰粻鍟嗕娇鐢ㄧ敓鐢�(ch菐n)瑕佺礌鐨勫師鍓�
鍥涖€佸畬鍏ㄧ(j矛ng)鐖�(zh膿ng)寤犲晢鑸囪常鏂瑰鏂峰粻鍟嗗皪(du矛)鐢熺敘(ch菐n)瑕佺礌鐨勯渶姹傛洸绶�
浜�銆佸粻鍟嗛渶姹傛洸绶氳垏甯傚牬(ch菐ng)闇€姹傛洸绶�
鍏€佽卜鏂瑰鏂锋儏娉佷笅鐢熺敘(ch菐n)瑕佺礌鐨勫児(ji脿)鏍艰垏鏁�(sh霉)閲忔焙瀹�
绗節绔� 瑕佺礌鍍�(ji脿)鏍兼焙瀹氱殑渚涚郸鏂归潰
涓€銆佽绱犱緵绲︺€佸師鍓囪垏鐒″樊鐣板垎鏋�
浜�銆佸嫗鍕�(d貌ng)渚涚郸鏇茬窔銆佹浛浠ｆ晥鎳�(y墨ng)鍜屾敹鍏ユ晥鎳�(y墨ng)銆佸伐璩囩巼姹哄畾
涓夈€佹瑕栫稉(j墨ng)婵�(j矛)瀛�(xu茅)
鍥�銆佸湡鍦颁緵绲︽洸绶氳垏鍦扮姹哄畾
浜�銆佽硣鏈€佽硣鏈緵绲﹁垏鍒╂伅姹哄畾
鍏�銆佹瓙鎷夊畾鐞�
涓�銆佹礇鍊尣鏇茬窔鑸囧熀灏肩郴鏁�(sh霉)
鍏€佽钵鍥板垎鏋�
绗崄绔� 涓€鑸潎琛¤珫鍜岀鍒╃稉(j墨ng)婵�(j矛)瀛�(xu茅)
涓€銆佷竴鑸潎琛″強瀵�(sh铆)鐝�(xi脿n)閬庣▼
浜�銆佺稉(j墨ng)婵�(j矛)鏁堢巼鑸囧垽鏂锋(bi膩o)婧�(zh菙n)
涓�銆佸焹濂囨弗鏂洅鐙€鍦�
鍥�銆佷氦鎻�銆佺敓鐢�(ch菐n)鐨勫笗绱墭鏈€鍎�(y艒u)姊濅欢
浜斻€佸畬鍏ㄧ(j矛ng)鐖�(zh膿ng)鑸囧笗绱墭鏈€鍎�(y艒u)
鍏�銆佺ぞ鏈�(hu矛)绂忓埄鍑芥暩(sh霉)銆佷笉鍙兘鎬у畾鐞嗚垏鍧囪　澶氭ǎ鎬�
涓冦€佹晥鐜囧拰鍏钩
50

 
 
绗崄涓€绔� 甯傚牬(ch菐ng)澶遍潏鍜屽井瑙€缍�(j墨ng)婵�(j矛)鏀跨瓥
涓€銆佸鏂疯垏浣庢晥鐜�
浜屻€佸皨绉熺悊璜�
涓�銆佹斂搴滅鍒�
鍥�銆佸閮ㄥ奖闊胯垏瑙ｆ焙鏂规硶
浜斻€佺鏂畾鐞�
鍏�銆佹帓浠栨€ц垏绔�(j矛ng)鐖�(zh膿ng)鎬�
涓冦€佸叕鍏辩墿鍝佽垏鍏叡璩囨簮
鍏�銆佷俊鎭笉瀹屽叏鍜屼笉灏�(du矛)绋�
涔�銆侀€嗗悜閬告搰鑸囬亾寰烽ⅷ(f膿ng)闅�(xi菐n)
鍗�銆佸鎵樹唬鐞嗗晱椤�
锛堝畯瑙€閮ㄥ垎锛�
绗崄浜岀珷 鍦�(gu贸)姘戞敹鍏ユ牳绠�
涓€锛氬畯瑙€缍�(j墨ng)婵�(j矛)瀛�(xu茅)鐨勬蹇点€佺爺绌跺皪(du矛)璞¤垏鐗归粸(di菐n)
浜岋細瀹忚缍�(j墨ng)婵�(j矛)瀛�(xu茅)鑸囧井瑙€缍�(j墨ng)婵�(j矛)瀛�(xu茅)鐨勫崁(q奴)鍒ュ拰鑱�(li谩n)绯�
涓夛細鍑辨仼鏂畯瑙€缍�(j墨ng)婵�(j矛)瀛�(xu茅)鐨勫舰鎴愯垏鐧�(f膩)灞�
鍥涳細鏂板彜鍏稿畯瑙€缍�(j墨ng)婵�(j矛)瀛�(xu茅)鍜屾柊鍑辨仼鏂富缇╃稉(j墨ng)婵�(j矛)瀛�(xu茅)鐨勫熀鏈悊璜�
浜旓細GDP銆丟NP銆丏PI 鐨勬蹇�
鍏細鍚嶇京 GDP銆佸(sh铆)闅� GDP銆丟DP 骞虫笡鎸囨暩(sh霉)锛圙DP deflator锛�
涓冿細鐢熺敘(ch菐n)娉曡垏鏀跺叆娉曟牳绠� GDP
鍏細鏀跺叆寰挵(hu谩n)妯″瀷
绗崄涓夌珷 绨�(ji菐n)鍠湅(gu贸)姘戞敹鍏ユ焙瀹氱悊璜�
涓€锛氬潎琛＄敘(ch菐n)鍑�
浜岋細娑堣不(f猫i)鍑芥暩(sh霉)
涓夛細鍏╅儴闁€鑸囦笁閮ㄩ杸涓湅(gu贸)姘戞敹鍏ョ殑姹哄畾
鍥涳細涔樻暩(sh霉)鐞嗚珫
绗崄鍥涚珷 鐢�(ch菐n)鍝佸競鍫�(ch菐ng)鍜岃波骞ｅ競鍫�(ch菐ng)鐨勪竴鑸潎琛�
涓€锛氭姇璩囩殑姹哄畾
浜岋細鍒╃巼鐨勬焙瀹�
涓夛細IS-LM 鍒嗘瀽
鍥涳細鍑辨仼鏂殑鍦�(gu贸)姘戞敹鍏ユ焙瀹氱悊璜�
绗崄浜旂珷 瀹忚缍�(j墨ng)婵�(j矛)鏀跨瓥鍒嗘瀽
涓€锛氳病(c谩i)鏀挎斂绛栫殑褰遍熆鍜屾晥鏋�
浜岋細璨ㄥ梗鏀跨瓥鐨勫奖闊垮拰鏁堟灉
涓夛細璨�(c谩i)鏀挎斂绛栬垏璨ㄥ梗鏀跨瓥鐨勯厤鍚�
绗崄鍏珷 瀹忚缍�(j墨ng)婵�(j矛)鏀跨瓥瀵�(sh铆)韪�
涓€锛氱稉(j墨ng)婵�(j矛)鏀跨瓥鐩(bi膩o)
浜岋細璨�(c谩i)鏀挎斂绛栧伐鍏�
涓夛細鍔熻兘璨�(c谩i)鏀裤€佽丹瀛楄垏鍏偟
鍥涳細鍏呭垎灏辨キ(y猫)鑸囧氨妤�(y猫)闋�(y霉)绠�
浜旓細璨ㄥ梗鏀跨瓥宸ュ叿
鍏細瀛樻鍓�(chu脿ng)閫�銆佸熀绀�(ch菙)璨ㄥ梗鑸囪波骞ｄ箻鏁�(sh霉)
涓冿細瑗挎柟鐨勫畯瑙€缍�(j墨ng)婵�(j矛)鏀跨瓥瀵�(sh铆)韪�
鍏細璀夊埜涓€绱�(j铆)甯傚牬(ch菐ng)鑸囦簩绱�(j铆)甯傚牬(ch菐ng)锛�
涔濓細鏈熻波鑸囨湡娆�(qu谩n)甯傚牬(ch菐ng)
鍗侊細鐝�(xi脿n)鍊笺€佹姇璩囨敹鐩婅垏棰�(f膿ng)闅�(xi菐n)
51

 
 
绗崄涓冪珷 AS鈥擜D 妯″瀷
涓€锛氳“閫€鑸囪暛姊�
浜岋細AD 鏇茬窔
涓夛細AS 鏇茬窔
鍥涳細AS鈥擜D 妯″瀷灏�(du矛)鐝�(xi脿n)瀵�(sh铆)鐨勮В閲�
绗崄鍏珷 澶辨キ(y猫)鍜岄€氳波鑶ㄨ劰
涓€锛氬け妤�(y猫)銆佸懆鏈熸€уけ妤�(y猫)鑸囪嚜鐒跺け妤�(y猫)鐜�
浜岋細濂ц偗瀹氬緥鑸囩姧鐗茬巼 sacrifice ratio
涓夛細鏈€浣庡伐璩囪垏鏁堢巼宸ヨ硣
鍥涳細閫氳波鑶ㄨ劰鐨勬蹇�銆佸害閲忚垏鍒嗛
浜旓細閫氳波鑶ㄨ劰鐨勬垚鍥犮€佸奖闊胯垏娌荤悊
鍏細娑堣不(f猫i)鑰呭児(ji脿)鏍兼寚鏁�(sh霉) CPI 鑸囩敓鐢�(ch菐n)鑰呭児(ji脿)鏍兼寚鏁�(sh霉) PPI
涓冿細璨�(f猫i)闆晥鎳�(y墨ng) Fisher Effect
鍏細鑿插埄鏅柉鏇茬窔
绗崄涔濈珷 鍦�(gu贸)闅涚稉(j墨ng)婵�(j矛)瀛�(xu茅)
涓€锛氭瘮杓冨劒(y艒u)鍕�(sh矛)鐞嗚珫鑸囩禃灏�(du矛)鍎�(y艒u)鍕�(sh矛)鐞嗚珫
浜岋細Heckscher鈥擮hlin 鐞嗚珫
涓夛細閲戞湰浣嶅埗
鍥涳細甯冮浄闋撴．鏋楅珨绯�
浜旓細澶栧尟甯傚牬(ch菐ng)骞查爯(y霉)
绗簩鍗佺珷 鍦�(gu贸)闅涚稉(j墨ng)婵�(j矛)瀛�(xu茅)
涓€锛氬尟鐜�銆佹(bi膩o)鍍�(ji脿)鑸囧尟鐜囧埗搴�
浜岋細瀵�(sh铆)闅涘尟鐜囪垏鍧囪　鍖巼
涓夛細璩�(g貌u)璨峰姏骞冲児(ji脿)鐞嗚珫
鍥涳細鍦�(gu贸)闅涙敹鏀钩琛¤〃
浜旓細闁嬫斁缍�(j墨ng)婵�(j矛)涓嬬殑璨�(c谩i)鏀胯垏璨ㄥ梗鏀跨瓥
绗簩鍗佷竴绔� 缍�(j墨ng)婵�(j矛)澧為暦(zh菐ng)鑸囩稉(j墨ng)婵�(j矛)鍛ㄦ湡
涓€锛氬闀�(zh菐ng)鏍哥畻鏂圭▼鑸囨柊鍙ゅ吀澧為暦(zh菐ng)鐞嗚珫
浜岋細鐢熺敘(ch菐n)鐜囩殑浣滅敤鑸囨焙瀹氬洜绱�
涓夛細缍�(j墨ng)婵�(j矛)澧為暦(zh菐ng)鏀跨瓥
鍥涳細鏀剁泭閬炴笡(diminishing returns )
浜�銆佽拷瓒曟晥鎳�(y墨ng)(catch-up effect)
鍏細缍�(j墨ng)婵�(j矛)鍛ㄦ湡鍚京鑸囩壒寰�
涓冿細瀵�(sh铆)闅涚稉(j墨ng)婵�(j矛)鍛ㄦ湡(RBC)鐞嗚珫