鍙嬫儏鎻愮ず锛氭湰绔欐彁渚涘叏鍦�400澶氭墍楂樼瓑闄㈡牎鎷涙敹纰╁+銆佸崥澹爺绌剁敓鍏ュ鑰冭│姝峰勾鑰冪爺鐪熼銆佽€冨崥鐪熼銆佺瓟妗堬紝閮ㄥ垎瀛告牎鏇存柊鑷�2012骞�锛�2013骞达紱鍧囨彁渚涙敹璨讳笅杓�銆� 涓嬭級娴佺▼锛� 鑰冪爺鐪熼 榛炴搳鈥�鑰冪爺瑭﹀嵎鈥濃€濅笅杓�; 鑰冨崥鐪熼 榛炴搳鈥�鑰冨崥瑭﹀嵎搴�鈥� 涓嬭級
閬煎澶у2021骞存嫑鏀舵敾璁€鍗氬+瀛镐綅鐮旂┒鐢�(鏅€氭嫑鑰冩柟寮�)
鍒濊│绉戠洰鑰冭│澶х侗
绉戠洰浠g⒓锛�3015
绉戠洰鍚嶇ū锛氳▓閲忕稉婵熷
婊垮垎锛�100鍒�
鏁搁噺缍撴繜瀛稿皥妤�(y猫)涓嬭ō鍏╁€嬬爺绌舵柟鍚戯細瑷堥噺缍撴繜瀛告ā鍨嬭垏鏂规硶鑸囧畯瑙€缍撴繜瑷堥噺鍒嗘瀽锛屾牴鎿氱爺绌舵柟鍚戝皥妤�(y猫)鐞嗚珫鍩虹闇€瑕�锛屾晠鎿畾灏堟キ(y猫)瑾层€婅▓閲忕稉婵熷銆嬪叆瀛歌€冭│澶х侗濡備笅锛�
涓€銆佽▓閲忕稉婵熷姒傝珫閮ㄥ垎
1.1 瑷堥噺缍撴繜瀛哥殑娑电京銆佺壒榛炲強鍏剁櫦(f膩)灞曞彶
瑷堥噺缍撴繜瀛哥殑姒傚康銆佺壒榛�銆佺櫦(f膩)灞曞彶
1.2 瑷堥噺缍撴繜瀛哥爺绌跺収瀹硅寖鐤�
瑷堥噺缍撴繜瀛告ā鍨嬮珨绯汇€佸缓妯℃柟娉曢珨绯�銆佹ā鍨嬫椹�
1.3 瑷堥噺缍撴繜瀛歌垏鐩搁棞瀛哥鐨勯棞绯�
瑷堥噺缍撴繜瀛歌垏鏁哥悊绲�(t菕ng)瑷堝銆佹暩鐞嗙稉婵熷銆佺稉婵熺当(t菕ng)瑷堝闂滅郴
1.4銆€瑷堥噺鍒嗘瀽鐨勫缓妯$▼搴忚垏鎴愬姛瑕佺礌
鏁告摎銆佺悊璜�銆佹柟娉�
1.5 瑷堥噺缍撴繜瀛稿湪缍撴繜鐮旂┒涓殑鎳夌敤
缍撴繜闋愭脯銆佺祼妲嬪垎鏋愩€佹斂绛栬⿻鍍�
1.6 瑷堥噺缍撴繜妯″瀷鏂规硶鑸囩稉婵熺稉椹楀璀夊垎鏋�
瀵﹁瓑鍒嗘瀽鍏ф兜銆佺悊璜栧璀夊垎鏋愯垏缍撻瀵﹁瓑鍒嗘瀽銆佸璀夊垎鏋愮▼搴忋€佽▓閲忕稉婵熷垎鏋愯垏缍撻瀵﹁瓑鍒嗘瀽鐨勯棞绯�
浜�銆� 绶氭€у洖姝告ā鍨嬭▓閲忓垎鏋�
2.1 绶氭€у洖姝告ā鍨嬩竴鑸舰寮�
涓€鑸舰寮忋€侀毃姗熸摼鍕曢爡銆侀洐绶氭€х壒榛�
2.2 绶氭€у洖姝告ā鍨嬭ō瀹氳垏寤烘ā鐨勫墠鎻愬亣瑷浠�
瑷畾鍓嶆彁鍋囪ō姊濅欢锛屽缓妯$殑缍撳吀銆侀潪缍撳吀鍓嶆彁鍋囪ō姊濅欢
2.3 绶氭€у洖姝告ā鍨嬪墠鎻愬亣瑷浠剁殑妾㈤
绶氭€ф€с€佸潎鍊兼€�銆佹柟宸€�銆佽嚜鐩搁棞鎬�銆佹鎱�(t脿i)鎬�銆佸閲嶅叡绶氭€ф椹�
2.4 绶氭€у洖姝告ā鍨嬪缓妯$殑浼拌▓鑸囨椹�
鐞冮潰鎿惧嫊涓嬬殑 娉�,闈炵悆闈㈡摼鍕曚笅鐨� 銆� 娉曪紝澶氶噸鍏辩窔鎬т笅鐨勫缓妯℃硶锛岄潪姝f厠(t脿i)鎿惧嫊涓嬬殑寤烘ā娉�锛岄毃姗熻В閲嬭畩閲忎笅 娉曪紝闈炵窔鎬у洖姝告ā鍨嬪缓妯℃硶锛岃櫅璁婇噺鍥炴妯″瀷寤烘ā娉曪紝鐗规畩绶氭€у洖姝告ā鍨嬪缓妯℃硶
2.5 绶氭€у洖姝告ā鍨嬭ō瀹氬亸瑾�
妯″瀷绶氭€у舰寮忚ō瀹氬亸瑾�锛屽浣欏拰閬烘紡瑙i噵璁婇噺锛屾摼鍕曢爡瑷畾鍋忚
2.6 绶氭€у洖姝告ā鍨嬬敤浜庣稉婵熷璀夊垎鏋�
姣旇純闈滄厠(t脿i)瀛�銆佸綀鎬�銆佷箻鏁哥祼妲嬪垎鏋愶紝缍撴繜闋愭脯鍒嗘瀽锛屾斂绛栨ā鎿垎
鏋�锛岄璀夊拰鐧�(f膩)灞曠稉婵熺悊璜�
涓夈€佽嚜鍥炴婊戝嫊骞冲潎妯″瀷瑷堥噺鍒嗘瀽
3.1 鑷洖姝告粦鍕曞钩鍧囨ā鍨嬪強鍏剁浉闂滃垎鏋�
妯″瀷褰㈠紡, 搴忓垪鐨勭浉闂滃垎鏋�
3.2 鑷洖姝告粦鍕曞钩鍧囨ā鍨嬪墠鎻愬亣瑷浠跺強妾㈤
妯″瀷瑷畾鑸囧缓妯″墠鎻愬亣瑷浠�, 妯″瀷鍓嶆彁鍋囪ō姊濅欢鐨勬椹�
3.3 鑷洖姝告粦鍕曞钩鍧囨ā鍨嬬殑鍙冩暩浼拌▓鑸囧缓妯�
搴忓垪鐨勫弮鏁哥煩浼拌▓锛� 妯″瀷鍙冩暩鐨勭煩浼拌▓銆� 浼拌▓銆� 浼拌▓锛� 妯″瀷鐨勮瓨鍒ヨ垏瀹氶殠銆佹摤鍚堝劒(y艒u)搴︽椹�
3.4 鑷洖姝告粦鍕曞钩鍧囨ā鍨嬬殑绶氭€ф渶灏忔柟宸爯娓�
妯″瀷鐨勬渶灏忔柟宸爯娓�锛� 妯″瀷闋愭脯鍒嗘瀽绋嬪簭
3.5 鍠暣銆佽嚜鍥炴姹傚拰婊戝嫊骞冲潎妯″瀷鍙婂叾闋愭脯
鍠暣鍙婂叾妾㈤鏂规硶锛� 妯″瀷鍙婂叾闋愭脯鍒嗘瀽
鍥涖€佹化鍚庤畩閲忔ā鍨�銆佸崝鏁磋垏鍧囪 鍒嗘瀽
4.1 婊悗鏁堟噳鑸囨化鍚庤畩閲忔ā鍨嬩竴鑸舰寮�
婊悗鏁堟噳,妯″瀷鐨勪竴鑸舰寮�,鐢㈢敓姗熷埗鍒嗘瀽
4.2 婊悗璁婇噺妯″瀷鍓嶆彁鍋囪ō姊濅欢銆佹椹楀強寤烘ā
妯″瀷鐨勫墠鎻愬亣瑷浠跺強妾㈤,妯″瀷鐨勫畾闅庢柟娉�,鍙冩暩浼拌▓鑸囧缓妯�
4.3 婊悗璁婇噺妯″瀷鐨勪箻鏁歌垏鏀跨瓥婊悗鏁堟噳鍒嗘瀽
婊悗璁婇噺妯″瀷鐨勪箻鏁稿垎鏋�,鏀跨瓥婊悗鏁堟噳鍒嗘瀽
4.4 鍗旀暣鐞嗚珫銆佽宸慨姝fā鍨嬭垏鍧囪 鍒嗘瀽
鍋藉洖姝稿晱椤�锛屽崝鏁寸悊璜栧強鍏舵椹楋紝 妯″瀷鍙婂叾寤烘ā锛屽崝鏁磋垏鍧囪 鍒嗘瀽
浜斻€佽伅绔嬫柟绋嬫ā鍨嬭▓閲忓垎鏋�
5.1 鑱珛鏂圭▼妯″瀷鐨勪竴鑸舰寮忓強鍓嶆彁鍋囪ō姊濅欢
鑱珛鏂圭▼妯″瀷鐨勪竴鑸舰寮�锛岃伅绔嬫柟绋嬫ā鍨嬬殑瑷畾锛屾ā鍨嬭ō瀹氱殑鍓嶆彁鍋囪ō姊濅欢鍙婄当(t菕ng)瑷堟椹�
5.2 鑱珛鏂圭▼妯″瀷鐨勮瓨鍒�
鑱珛鏂圭▼妯″瀷璀樺垾鐨勬兜缇�锛岃伅绔嬫柟绋嬬祼妲嬪紡妯″瀷璀樺垾鏂规硶
5.3 鑱珛鏂圭▼妯″瀷鐨勫缓妯℃柟娉�
鑱珛鏂圭▼绲愭寮忔ā鍨嬪柈鏂圭▼銆佽伅绔嬫柟绋嬪缓妯℃柟娉�
5.4 鑱珛鏂圭▼妯″瀷鐨勭祼妲嬪垎鏋愬拰缍撴繜闋愭脯
鑱珛鏂圭▼妯″瀷鐨勭祼妲嬪垎鏋�銆佺稉婵熼爯娓�
5.5 鑱珛鏂圭▼妯″瀷鐨勬斂绛栨ā鎿垎鏋愯垏鏁堟噳瑭曞児
缍撴繜鏀跨瓥瑭曞児鐨勫収娑�銆佺壒寰佸拰浣滅敤锛岀稉婵熸斂绛栬⿻鍍瑰師鐞�銆佸師鍓囧拰锛屾婧�锛岀稉婵熸斂绛栬⿻鍍瑰収瀹硅垏娴佺▼锛岀稉婵熸斂绛栬⿻鍍圭殑鑱珛鏂圭▼妯″瀷鍜屾柟娉�
鍏�銆佸悜閲忚嚜鍥炴妯″瀷鑸囧悜閲忚宸慨姝fā鍨嬭▓閲忓垎鏋�
6.1 鍚戦噺鑷洖姝告ā鍨嬭▓閲忓垎鏋愭柟娉�
妯″瀷鐨勪竴鑸舰寮�锛� 妯″瀷鐨勫弮鏁竃ule-Walker銆� 浼拌▓锛� 妯″瀷鐨勯爯娓紝 妯″瀷鐨勫畾闅�锛�
6.2 鍚戦噺鑷洖姝告ā鍨嬬殑Granger鍥犳灉闂滅郴妾㈤
Granger鍥犳灉闂滅郴娑电京銆丟ranger鍥犳灉闂滅郴妾㈤
6.3 妯″瀷鐨勮剤娌栭熆鎳夊嚱鏁歌垏鏂瑰樊鍒嗚В
鑴堟矕闊挎噳鍑芥暩銆佹柟宸垎瑙�
6.4 Johansen鍗旀暣妾㈤鑸囧悜閲忚宸慨姝fā鍨�( )
Johansen鍗旀暣妾㈤锛屽悜閲忚宸慨姝fā鍨�( )
涓�銆侀潰鏉挎暩鎿氾紙panel data锛夋ā鍨嬭▓閲忓垎鏋�
7.1闈㈡澘鏁告摎妯″瀷鍙婂叾妾㈤
璁婃埅璺濋潰鏉挎暩鎿氭ā鍨�銆佽畩鍙冩暩闈㈡澘鏁告摎妯″瀷锛涘浐瀹氭晥鎳夐潰鏉挎暩鎿氭ā鍨�銆侀毃姗熸晥鎳夐潰鏉挎暩鎿氭ā鍨�锛岄潰鏉挎暩鎿氭ā鍨嬬殑绲�(t菕ng)瑷堟椹�
7.2 璁婃埅璺濋潰鏉挎暩鎿氭ā鍨嬬殑鍙冩暩浼拌▓
鍥哄畾鏁堟噳璁婃埅璺濋潰鏉挎暩鎿氭ā鍨嬬殑鍙冩暩浼拌▓锛岄毃姗熸晥鎳夎畩鎴窛闈㈡澘鏁告摎妯″瀷鐨勫弮鏁镐及瑷堬紝璁婃埅璺濋潰鏉挎暩鎿氭ā鍨嬬殑绲�(t菕ng)瑷堟椹�
7.3 璁婂弮鏁搁潰鏉挎暩鎿氭ā鍨嬬殑鍙冩暩浼拌▓
鍥哄畾鏁堟噳璁婂弮鏁搁潰鏉挎暩鎿氭ā鍨嬬殑鍙冩暩浼拌▓锛岄毃姗熸晥鎳夎畩鍙冩暩闈㈡澘鏁告摎妯″瀷鐨勫弮鏁镐及瑷�
7.4 鍕曟厠(t脿i)闈㈡澘鏁告摎妯″瀷鐨勫弮鏁镐及瑷�
鍕曟厠(t脿i)闈㈡澘鏁告摎妯″瀷鐨勪及瑷�锛屽嫊鎱�(t脿i)闈㈡澘鏁告摎妯″瀷鐨勫柈浣嶆牴妾㈤
鍏嶈铂鑱叉槑锛氭湰鏂囩郴杞夎級鑷恫绲�锛屽鏈変镜鐘�锛岃珛鑱郴鎴戝€戠珛鍗冲埅闄�锛屽彟锛氭湰鏂囧儏浠h〃浣滆€呭€嬩汉瑙€榛�锛岃垏鏈恫绔欑劇闂�銆傚叾鍘熷壍(chu脿ng)鎬т互鍙婃枃涓櫝杩版枃瀛楀拰鍏у鏈稉鏈珯璀夊锛屽皪鏈枃浠ュ強鍏朵腑鍏ㄩ儴鎴栬€呴儴鍒嗗収瀹�銆佹枃瀛楃殑鐪熷鎬�銆佸畬鏁存€�銆佸強鏅傛€ф湰绔欎笉浣滀换浣曚繚璀夋垨鎵胯锛岃珛璁€鑰呭儏浣滃弮鑰�锛屽苟璜嬭嚜琛屾牳瀵︾浉闂滃収瀹广€�