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鍙嬫儏鎻愮ず锛氭湰绔欐彁渚涘叏鍦�400澶氭墍楂樼瓑闄㈡牎鎷涙敹纰╁＋銆佸崥澹爺绌剁敓鍏ュ(xu茅)鑰冭│姝峰勾鑰冪爺鐪熼銆佽€冨崥鐪熼銆佺瓟妗堬紝閮ㄥ垎瀛�(xu茅)鏍℃洿鏂拌嚦2012骞�锛�2013骞达紱鍧囨彁渚涙敹璨�(f猫i)涓嬭級銆� 涓嬭級娴佺▼锛� 鑰冪爺鐪熼 榛�(di菐n)鎿娾€�鑰冪爺瑭﹀嵎鈥濃€濅笅杓�; 鑰冨崥鐪熼 榛�(di菐n)鎿娾€�鑰冨崥瑭﹀嵎搴�鈥� 涓嬭級
1
婀栧崡甯寖澶у(xu茅)纰╁＋鐮旂┒鐢熷叆瀛�(xu茅)鑰冭│鑷懡椤岃€冭│澶х侗
鑰冭│绉戠洰浠ｇ⒓锛歔 ] 鑰冭│绉戠洰鍚嶇ū锛氭鐜囩当(t菕ng)瑷�(j矛)
涓€銆佽│鍗风祼(ji茅)妲�(g貌u)
1) 瑭﹀嵎鎴愮妇鍙婅€冭│鏅�(sh铆)闁�
鏈│鍗锋豢鍒嗙偤 100 鍒�锛岃€冭│鏅�(sh铆)闁撶偤 180 鍒嗛悩銆�
2)绛旈鏂瑰紡锛氶枆鍗�銆佺瓎瑭�
3)瑭﹀嵎鍏�(n猫i)瀹圭祼(ji茅)妲�(g貌u)
姒傜巼璜栭儴鍒� 65% 鏁�(sh霉)鐞嗙当(t菕ng)瑷�(j矛)閮ㄥ垎 35%
4)椤屽瀷绲�(ji茅)妲�(g貌u)
a: 鍠爡(xi脿ng)閬告搰椤岋紝6 灏忛锛屾瘡灏忛 3 鍒嗭紝鍏� 18 鍒�
b: 濉┖椤�锛�6 灏忛锛屾瘡灏忛 3 鍒�锛屽叡 18 鍒�
c: 瑙ｇ瓟椤�(鍖呮嫭璀夋槑椤�)锛�6 灏忛锛屾瘡灏忛 鍒�锛屽叡 64 鍒�
浜屻€佽€冭│鍏�(n猫i)瀹硅垏鑰冭│瑕佹眰
锛堜竴锛夋鐜囪珫閮ㄥ垎
1銆侀毃姗�(j墨)浜嬩欢鑸囨鐜�
鑰冭│瑕佹眰鍜屽収(n猫i)瀹�:
(1). 浜嗚В妯ｆ湰绌洪枔鐨勬蹇�, 鐞嗚В闅ㄦ(j墨)浜嬩欢鐨勬蹇�, 鎺屾彙浜嬩欢鐨勯棞(gu膩n)绯昏垏閬�(y霉n)绠�.
(2). 鐞嗚В姒傜巼銆佹浠舵鐜囩殑姒傚康, 鎺屾彙姒傜巼鐨勫熀鏈€ц唱(zh矛), 鏈冭▓(j矛)绠楀彜鍏稿瀷姒傜巼鍜屽咕
浣曞瀷姒傜巼, 鎺屾彙姒傜巼鐨勫姞娉曞叕寮�銆佹笡娉曞叕寮�銆佷箻娉曞叕寮�銆佸叏姒傜巼鍏紡, 浠ュ強璨�
钁夋柉鍏紡.
(3). 鐞嗚В浜嬩欢鐛�(d煤)绔嬫€х殑姒傚康, 鎺屾彙鐢ㄤ簨浠剁崹(d煤)绔嬫€ч€�(j矛n)琛屾鐜囪▓(j矛)绠�锛涚悊瑙ｇ崹(d煤)绔嬮噸寰�(f霉)瑭�
椹�(y脿n)鐨勬鐜�, 鎺屾彙瑷�(j矛)绠楁湁闂�(gu膩n)浜嬩欢姒傜巼鐨勬柟娉�.
锛堜簲鍊�(g猫)鍩烘湰姒傚康锛屽叐绋鍨嬬殑姒傜巼瑷�(j矛)绠�锛屾鐜囪▓(j矛)绠楃殑浜斿€�(g猫)鍩烘湰鍏紡鍙婇潏娲婚亱(y霉n)鐢ㄣ€�
浼姫鍔涢噸寰�(f霉)瑭﹂(y脿n)銆傦級
2
2銆佷竴缍毃姗�(j墨)璁婇噺鍙婂叾鍒嗗竷
鑰冭│瑕佹眰鍜屽収(n猫i)瀹�:
(1). 鐞嗚В闅ㄦ(j墨)璁婇噺鍙婂叾姒傜巼鍒嗗竷鐨勬蹇�.鐞嗚В鍒嗗竷鍑芥暩(sh霉)( ( ) ( )F x P X x? ? ) 鐨勬蹇靛強
鎬ц唱(zh矛).鏈冭▓(j矛)绠楄垏闅ㄦ(j墨)璁婇噺鏈夐棞(gu膩n)鐨勪簨浠剁殑姒傜巼.
(2). 鐞嗚В闆㈡暎鍨嬮毃姗�(j墨)璁婇噺鍙婂叾姒傜巼鍒嗗竷鐨勬蹇�锛屾帉鎻� 0锛�1 鍒嗗竷銆佷簩闋�(xi脿ng)鍒嗗竷銆佸咕
浣曞垎甯�銆佽秴骞句綍鍒嗗竷銆佹硦鏉撅紙Poisson锛夊垎甯冨強鍏舵噳(y墨ng)鐢�.
(3). 浜嗚В娉婃澗瀹氱悊鐨勭祼(ji茅)璜栧拰鎳�(y墨ng)鐢ㄦ浠讹紝鏈冪敤娉婃澗鍒嗗竷杩戜技琛ㄧず浜岄爡(xi脿ng)鍒嗗竷.
(4). 鐞嗚В閫ｇ簩(x霉)鍨嬮毃姗�(j墨)璁婇噺鍙婂叾姒傜巼瀵嗗害鐨勬蹇�锛屾帉鎻″潎鍕诲垎甯�銆佹鎱�(t脿i)鍒嗗竷
2
( , )N ? ? 銆佹寚鏁�(sh霉)鍒嗗竷鍙婂叾鎳�(y墨ng)鐢�锛屽叾涓弮鏁�(sh霉)鐐� ( 0)? ? ? 鐨勬寚鏁�(sh霉)鍒嗗竷鐨勬鐜囧瘑搴︾偤
, 0,
( )
0, 0.
x
e x
f x
x
?
?
?
? ?
? ?
??
(5). 鏈冩眰闅ㄦ(j墨)璁婇噺鍑芥暩(sh霉)鐨勫垎甯�.
3銆佷簩缍毃姗�(j墨)璁婇噺鍙婂叾鍒嗗竷
鑰冭│瑕佹眰鍜屽収(n猫i)瀹�:
(1). 鐞嗚В澶氱董闅ㄦ(j墨)璁婇噺鐨勬蹇�锛岀悊瑙ｅ缍毃姗�(j墨)璁婇噺鐨勫垎甯冪殑姒傚康鍜屾€ц唱(zh矛)锛岀悊瑙ｄ簩
缍洟鏁ｅ瀷闅ㄦ(j墨)璁婇噺鐨勬鐜囧垎甯�銆侀倞绶ｅ垎甯冨拰姊濅欢鍒嗗竷锛岀悊瑙ｄ簩缍€ｇ簩(x霉)鍨嬮毃姗�(j墨)璁�
閲忕殑姒傜巼瀵嗗害銆侀倞绶ｅ瘑搴﹀拰姊濅欢瀵嗗害.鏈冩眰鑸囦簩缍毃姗�(j墨)璁婇噺鐩搁棞(gu膩n)浜嬩欢鐨勬鐜�.
(2). 鐞嗚В闅ㄦ(j墨)璁婇噺鐨勭崹(d煤)绔嬫€у強涓嶇浉闂�(gu膩n)鐨勬蹇碉紝鎺屾彙闅ㄦ(j墨)璁婇噺鐩镐簰鐛�(d煤)绔嬬殑姊濅欢.
(3). 鎺屾彙浜岀董鍧囧嫽鍒嗗竷锛屼簡瑙ｄ簩缍鎱�(t脿i)鍒嗗竷鐨勬鐜囧瘑搴︼紝鐞嗚В鍏朵腑鍙冩暩(sh霉)鐨勬鐜囨剰
缇� .
(4). 鏈冩眰鍏╁€�(g猫)闅ㄦ(j墨)璁婇噺绨″柈鍑芥暩(sh霉)鐨勫垎甯�锛屾渻姹傚鍊�(g猫)鐩镐簰鐛�(d煤)绔嬮毃姗�(j墨)璁婇噺绨″柈鍑芥暩(sh霉)鐨�
鍒嗗竷.
4銆佹暩(sh霉)瀛楃壒寰佽垏妤甸檺瀹氱悊
鑰冭│瑕佹眰鍜屽収(n猫i)瀹�:
(1)锛庣悊瑙ｉ毃姗�(j墨)璁婇噺鏁�(sh霉)瀛楃壒寰�(鏁�(sh霉)瀛�(xu茅)鏈熸湜銆佹柟宸�銆佹(bi膩o)婧�(zh菙n)宸�銆佺煩銆佸崝(xi茅)鏂瑰樊銆佺浉闂�(gu膩n)
绯绘暩(sh霉))鐨勬蹇�, 鏈冮亱(y霉n)鐢ㄦ暩(sh霉)瀛楃壒寰佺殑鍩烘湰鎬ц唱(zh矛), 骞舵帉鎻″父鐢ㄥ垎甯冪殑鏁�(sh霉)瀛楃壒寰�.
(2)锛庢渻鏍规摎(j霉)闅ㄦ(j墨)璁婇噺鐨勬鐜囧垎甯冩眰鍏跺嚱鏁�(sh霉)鐨勬暩(sh霉)瀛�(xu茅)鏈熸湜锛涙渻鏍规摎(j霉)闅ㄦ(j墨)璁婇噺鐨�
鑱�(li谩n)鍚堟鐜囧垎甯冩眰鍏跺嚱鏁�(sh霉)鐨勬暩(sh霉)瀛�(xu茅)鏈熸湜 )],([ YXgE
.
(3)锛庝簡瑙ｅ垏姣旈洩澶笉绛夊紡.
(4)锛庝簡瑙ｅ垏姣旈洩澶ぇ鏁�(sh霉)瀹氬緥銆佷集鍔埄澶ф暩(sh霉)瀹氬緥鍜岃緵娆藉ぇ鏁�(sh霉)瀹氬緥(鐛�(d煤)绔嬪悓鍒嗗竷
3
闅ㄦ(j墨)璁婇噺鐨勫ぇ鏁�(sh霉)瀹氬緥)
(5)锛庝簡瑙ｆ＃鑾紬鈥旀媺鏅媺鏂畾鐞�(浜岄爡(xi脿ng)鍒嗗竷浠ユ鎱�(t脿i)鍒嗗竷鐐烘サ闄愬垎甯�)鍜屽垪缍€�
鏋楀痉浼牸瀹氱悊(鐛�(d煤)绔嬪悓鍒嗗竷鐨勪腑蹇冩サ闄愬畾鐞�)锛涳紙缍�(j墨ng)婵�(j矛)椤為倓瑕佹眰锛夋渻鐢ㄧ浉闂�(gu膩n)瀹氱悊杩�
浼艰▓(j矛)绠楁湁闂�(gu膩n)闅ㄦ(j墨)浜嬩欢鐨勬鐜�
锛堜簩锛夋暩(sh霉)鐞嗙当(t菕ng)瑷�(j矛)閮ㄥ垎
1銆佺当(t菕ng)瑷�(j矛)閲忓強鍏跺垎甯�
鑰冭│瑕佹眰鍜屽収(n猫i)瀹�:
(1). 鐞嗚В绺介珨銆佺啊鍠毃姗�(j墨)妯ｆ湰銆佺当(t菕ng)瑷�(j矛)閲�銆佹ǎ鏈潎鍊�銆佹ǎ鏈柟宸強妯ｆ湰鐭╃殑姒�
蹇�.
(2). 浜嗚В?2
鍒嗗竷銆乼 鍒嗗竷鍜� F 鍒嗗竷鐨勬蹇靛強鎬ц唱(zh矛),浜嗚В鍒嗕綅鏁�(sh霉)鐨勬蹇靛苟鏈冩煡
琛ㄨ▓(j矛)绠�.
(3). 浜嗚В姝ｆ厠(t脿i)绺介珨鐨勫父鐢ㄦ娊妯ｅ垎甯�.
(4). 鐞嗚В缍�(j墨ng)椹�(y脿n)鍒嗗竷鍑芥暩(sh霉)鐨勬蹇靛拰鎬ц唱(zh矛).
2銆佸弮鏁�(sh霉)浼拌▓(j矛)
鑰冭│瑕佹眰鍜屽収(n猫i)瀹�:
(1). 鐞嗚В鍙冩暩(sh霉)鐨勯粸(di菐n)浼拌▓(j矛)銆佷及瑷�(j矛)閲忚垏浼拌▓(j矛)鍊肩殑姒傚康.
(2). 鎺屾彙鐭╀及瑷�(j矛)娉�(涓€闅�銆佷簩闅庣煩)鍜屾渶澶т技鐒剁殑浼拌▓(j矛)娉�.
(3). 浜嗚В浼拌▓(j矛)閲忕殑鐒″亸鎬�銆佹湁鏁堟€�(鏈€灏忔柟宸€�)鍜屼竴鑷存€�(鐩稿悎鎬�)鐨勬蹇�,骞�
鏈冮(y脿n)璀変及瑷�(j矛)閲忕殑鐒″亸鎬�.
(4). 鐞嗚В鍗€(q奴)闁撲及瑷�(j矛)鐨勬蹇�,鏈冩眰鍠€�(g猫)姝ｆ厠(t脿i)绺介珨鐨勫潎鍊煎拰鏂瑰樊鐨勭疆淇″崁(q奴)闁�,鏈冩眰
鍏╁€�(g猫)姝ｆ厠(t脿i)绺介珨鐨勫潎鍊煎樊鍜屾柟宸瘮鐨勭疆淇″崁(q奴)闁�.
3銆佸亣瑷�(sh猫)妾㈤(y脿n)鍜岀窔鎬у洖姝�
鑰冭│瑕佹眰鍜屽収(n猫i)瀹�:
(1).鐞嗚В椤憲鎬ф椹�(y脿n)鐨勫熀鏈€濇兂,鎺屾彙鍋囪ō(sh猫)妾㈤(y脿n)鐨勫熀鏈椹�,浜嗚В鍋囪ō(sh猫)妾㈤(y脿n)鍙�
鑳界敘(ch菐n)鐢熺殑鍏╅閷�(cu貌)瑾�.
(2). 鎺屾彙鍠€�(g猫)鍙婂叐鍊�(g猫)姝ｆ厠(t脿i)绺介珨鐨勫潎鍊煎拰鏂瑰樊鐨勫亣瑷�(sh猫)妾㈤(y脿n).
(3).鎺屾彙涓€鍏冪窔鎬у洖姝告ā鍨�,鍥炴绯绘暩(sh霉)鐨勬渶灏忎簩鍓╀及瑷�(j矛);浜嗚В鍥炴鏂圭▼鐨勯’钁�
鎬ф椹�(y脿n).
顥ヮ棩
4
顥�
涓�銆佸弮鑰冩浉鐩�
[1] 鑼嗚┅鏉�, 绋嬩緷鏄庣瓑绶�. 姒傜巼璜栬垏鏁�(sh霉)鐞嗙当(t菕ng)瑷�(j矛)鏁欑▼锛堢浜岀増锛�. 楂樼瓑鏁欒偛鍑虹増绀�,
2011
[2] 鐩涢, 绛夌法. 姒傜巼璜栬垏鏁�(sh霉)鐞嗙当(t菕ng)瑷�(j矛)鏁欑▼锛堢鍥涚増锛�. 楂樼瓑鏁欒偛鍑虹増绀�, 2008
鍏嶈铂(z茅)鑱叉槑锛氭湰鏂囩郴杞�(zhu菐n)杓夎嚜缍�(w菐ng)绲�(lu貌)锛屽鏈変镜鐘紝璜嬭伅(li谩n)绯绘垜鍊戠珛鍗冲埅闄�锛屽彟锛氭湰鏂囧儏浠ｈ〃浣滆€呭€�(g猫)浜鸿榛�(di菐n)锛岃垏鏈恫(w菐ng)绔欑劇闂�(gu膩n)銆傚叾鍘熷壍(chu脿ng)鎬т互鍙婃枃涓櫝杩版枃瀛楀拰鍏�(n猫i)瀹规湭缍�(j墨ng)鏈珯璀夊(sh铆)锛屽皪鏈枃浠ュ強鍏朵腑鍏ㄩ儴鎴栬€呴儴鍒嗗収(n猫i)瀹�銆佹枃瀛楃殑鐪熷(sh铆)鎬�銆佸畬鏁存€�銆佸強鏅�(sh铆)鎬ф湰绔欎笉浣滀换浣曚繚璀夋垨鎵胯锛岃珛璁€鑰呭儏浣滃弮鑰�锛屽苟璜嬭嚜琛屾牳瀵�(sh铆)鐩搁棞(gu膩n)鍏�(n猫i)瀹�銆�
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鏂囩珷鎼滅储
鎮ㄧ従(xi脿n)鍦ㄧ殑浣嶇疆锛� 
