鍙嬫儏鎻愮ず锛氭湰绔欐彁渚涘叏鍦�400澶氭墍楂樼瓑闄㈡牎鎷涙敹纰╁+銆佸崥澹爺绌剁敓鍏ュ(xu茅)鑰冭│姝峰勾鑰冪爺鐪熼銆佽€冨崥鐪熼銆佺瓟妗�锛岄儴鍒嗗(xu茅)鏍℃洿鏂拌嚦2012骞�锛�2013骞�锛涘潎鎻愪緵鏀惰不涓嬭級銆� 涓嬭級娴佺▼锛� 鑰冪爺鐪熼 榛炴搳鈥�鑰冪爺瑭﹀嵎鈥濃€濅笅杓�; 鑰冨崥鐪熼 榛炴搳鈥�鑰冨崥瑭﹀嵎搴�鈥� 涓嬭級
瀹夊窘甯寖澶у(xu茅) 瑷堥噺缍�(j墨ng)婵�(j矛)瀛�(xu茅)瑾茬▼澶х侗 瑾茬▼鍚嶇ū:瑷堥噺缍�(j墨ng)婵�(j矛)瀛�(xu茅) 澶х侗绶ㄥ绲勶細瀛旀叾娲�銆佸攼蹇楃ゥ銆佸嫉鐡�銆佽儭灏忔枃 涓€銆佽绋嬫娉� 鎵€灞皥妤�(y猫): 缍�(j墨ng)婵�(j矛)瀛�(xu茅) 闁嬭鍠綅锛� 缍�(j墨ng)婵�(j矛)绠$悊瀛�(xu茅)闄� 瑾茬▼椤炲瀷: 灏堟キ(y猫)鍩虹(ch菙)瑾茬▼ 瑾茬▼浠g⒓: 1343010 闁嬭瀛�(xu茅)鏈�: 5 瀛�(xu茅)鍒嗭細 3 瀛�(xu茅)鏅傦細 51 鏍稿績瑾茬▼: 鏄� 瀛�(xu茅)鏅傚垎甯� 绺藉(xu茅)鏅� 鐞嗚珫瀛�(xu茅)鏅� 瀵﹁笎鍜屽椹� 瀛�(xu茅)鏅� 寤鸿瀛�(xu茅)鐢熻澶栬嚜涓诲(xu茅)缈�(x铆)瀛�(xu茅) 鏅� 68 51 17 36 娉ㄦ剰锛氬韪愬拰瀵﹂瀛�(xu茅)鏅傛槸鎸囧埌瀵﹂瀹ゅ椹楋紝绲勭箶瀛�(xu茅)鐢熷鍑哄弮瑙€銆佽(di脿o)鏌ョ瓑锛屼竴鑸殑 瑾插悗浣滄キ(y猫)鍜屽尟鍫辫▓鍏ョ悊璜栬鏅� 鎿娇鐢ㄦ暀鏉愶細 榫愮殦锛氳▓閲忕稉(j墨ng)婵�(j矛)瀛�(xu茅)锛屽寳浜細绉戝(xu茅)鍑虹増绀撅紙绗笁鐗堬級锛�2014. 鍦嬪収(n猫i)(澶�)鐝�(xi脿n)鏈夊劒(y艒u)绉€鏁欐潗锛� R.鍗$壒锛氬垵绱氳▓閲忕稉(j墨ng)婵�(j矛)瀛�(xu茅)锛屾澅鍖楄病缍�(j墨ng)澶у(xu茅)鍑虹増绀撅紙鑻辨枃绗簩鐗堬級锛�2006 瀛�(xu茅)缈�(x铆)鍙冭€冭硣鏂欙細 1. James H. Stock 瑷堥噺缍�(j墨ng)婵�(j矛)瀛�(xu茅)绮捐锛岀帇鎱剁煶璀�锛屾澅鍖楄病缍�(j墨ng)澶у(xu茅)绀�. 2. 鏈熷垔锛氭暩(sh霉)閲忕稉(j墨ng)婵�(j矛)鑸囨妧琛�(sh霉)缍�(j墨ng)婵�(j矛)鐮旂┒銆� 3. 鍦ㄧ窔瑾茬▼瑕栭牷锛氭竻鑿ぇ瀛�(xu茅)瑷堥噺缍�(j墨ng)婵�(j矛)瀛�(xu茅)鍏枊瑾茶闋� 锛� http://www.openke.net/show-725.html 4.瑗垮崡璨$稉(j墨ng)澶у(xu茅)瑷堥噺缍�(j墨ng)婵�(j矛)瀛�(xu茅)鍏枊瑾茶闋�锛� http://www.icourses.cn/coursestatic/course_4310.html 5. 浜哄ぇ璜栧锛堣▓閲忕稉(j墨ng)婵�(j矛)瀛�(xu茅)锛夛細http://bbs.pinggu.org/forum-5-1.html 浜�銆佽绋嬫弿杩帮紙300 瀛椾互鍏�(n猫i)锛� 瑷堥噺缍�(j墨ng)婵�(j矛)瀛�(xu茅)鏄湪灏嶇ぞ鏈冪稉(j墨ng)婵�(j矛)鐝�(xi脿n)璞′綔瀹氭€у垎鏋愮殑鍩虹(ch菙)涓�锛屾帰瑷庡浣曢亱鐢ㄧ当(t菕ng)瑷堟ā 鍨嬫柟娉曚締瀹氶噺鎻忚堪鍏锋湁闅ㄦ(j墨)鎬х壒寰佺殑缍�(j墨ng)婵�(j矛)璁婇噺闂�(gu膩n)绯荤殑鎳�(y墨ng)鐢ㄧ稉(j墨ng)婵�(j矛)鍒嗘敮銆傚湪瀹忚缍�(j墨ng)婵�(j矛) 绠$悊鍜岄爯(y霉)娓柟闈�锛屽湪璨ㄥ梗鍜岃病鏀跨瓑闋�(l菒ng)鍩熺殑鐮旂┒鏂归潰锛屽湪浼佹キ(y猫)绠$悊鍜屽競鍫撮爯(y霉)娓柟闈�锛� 瑷堥噺缍�(j墨ng)婵�(j矛)鏂规硶姝i€愭寰楀埌鎺ㄥ唬锛岀嵅寰椾簡瓒婁締瓒婂ソ鐨勬噳(y墨ng)鐢ㄦ晥鏋�銆�1998 骞� 7 鏈�锛屾暀 鑲查儴楂樼瓑瀛�(xu茅)鏍$稉(j墨ng)婵�(j矛)瀛�(xu茅)瀛�(xu茅)绉戞暀瀛�(xu茅)鎸囧皫(d菐o)濮斿摗鏈冩垚绔�锛屽湪绗竴娆℃渻璀颁笂锛岃◣璜栧苟纰哄畾浜� 楂樼瓑瀛�(xu茅)鏍$稉(j墨ng)婵�(j矛)瀛�(xu茅)闁€椤炲悇灏堟キ(y猫)鐨� 8 闁€鍏卞悓鏍稿績瑾茬▼锛屽叾涓寘鎷€婅▓閲忕稉(j墨ng)婵�(j矛)瀛�(xu茅)銆�锛屽苟 灏囥€婅▓閲忕稉(j墨ng)婵�(j矛)瀛�(xu茅)銆嬮娆″垪鍏ョ稉(j墨ng)婵�(j矛)椤炲皥妤�(y猫)鏍稿績瑾茬▼銆傞€氶亷鏈绋嬬殑瀛�(xu茅)缈�(x铆)锛屽(xu茅)鐢熷彲浠� 鎺屾彙瑷堥噺缍�(j墨ng)婵�(j矛)瀛�(xu茅)鐨勫熀鏈師鐞嗗拰鏂规硶锛屼簡瑙h▓閲忕稉(j墨ng)婵�(j矛)瀛�(xu茅)鐨勬噳(y墨ng)鐢ㄩ牁(l菒ng)鍩�锛屽(xu茅)鏈冪敤瑷堥噺缍�(j墨ng) 婵�(j矛)妯″瀷灏嶅闅涚稉(j墨ng)婵�(j矛)鍟忛閫�(j矛n)琛屽璀夊垎鏋�銆傝┎瑾茬▼鍦ㄥ(xu茅)鐢熺煡璀樼祼(ji茅)妲�(g貌u)涓崰鏈夐噸瑕佷綅缃�锛� 鏄爺绌惰兘鍔涘拰瀵﹁笎鑳藉姏鐨勯噸瑕佺祫鎴愰儴鍒�銆� 閫氶亷鏈绋嬫暀瀛�(xu茅)锛屼娇瀛�(xu茅)鐢熶簡瑙h▓閲忕稉(j墨ng)婵�(j矛)瀛�(xu茅)鐨勫熀鏈蹇靛拰甯哥敤琛�(sh霉)瑾�锛岀悊瑙f湁 闂�(gu膩n)瑷堥噺缍�(j墨ng)婵�(j矛)瀛�(xu茅)鍘熺悊鐨勫熀鏈€濇兂锛屾帉鎻¤▓閲忕稉(j墨ng)婵�(j矛)妯″瀷鐨勯仼鐢ㄦ浠�銆佹噳(y墨ng)鐢ㄧ壒榛�锛屾帉鎻� 瑷堥噺妯″瀷鐨勫熀鏈及瑷堝拰妾㈤鏂规硶锛屽(xu茅)鏈冭▓閲忕殑寤烘ā鏂规硶锛岃兘澶犳噳(y墨ng)鐢ㄥ皥妤�(y猫)杌熶欢閫�(j矛n)琛� 缍�(j墨ng)婵�(j矛)寤烘ā锛岀偤缍�(j墨ng)婵�(j矛)銆佺鐞嗙殑瀛�(xu茅)缈�(x铆)鍜岀鐮旀彁渚涗竴鍊嬫湁鍔涚殑宸ュ叿銆� 涓�銆佽绋嬬洰妯�(bi膩o) 1.浜嗚В瑷堥噺缍�(j墨ng)婵�(j矛)瀛�(xu茅)鑸囩稉(j墨ng)婵�(j矛)瀛�(xu茅)銆佺当(t菕ng)瑷堝(xu茅)銆佹暩(sh霉)瀛�(xu茅)绛夊(xu茅)绉戠殑闂�(gu膩n)绯�銆� 2.鐔熺反鎺屾彙鍠柟绋嬫ā鍨嬪拰鑱�(li谩n)绔嬫柟绋嬫ā鍨嬬殑鍩烘湰浼拌▓鐞嗚珫鍜屾椹楁柟娉曪紝鑳藉寤� 绔嬪苟鎳�(y墨ng)鐢ㄧ啊鍠殑瑷堥噺缍�(j墨ng)婵�(j矛)妯″瀷鍒嗘瀽瀵﹂殯缍�(j墨ng)婵�(j矛)鍟忛銆� 3. 浜嗚В鎳�(y墨ng)鐢ㄨ▓閲忕稉(j墨ng)婵�(j矛)瀛�(xu茅)鐨勫熀鏈収(n猫i)瀹�锛岀啛鎮夋(g貌u)閫犵悊璜栬▓閲忕稉(j墨ng)婵�(j矛)妯″瀷鐨勫熀鏈柟 娉�锛屼互鍙婅▓閲忕稉(j墨ng)婵�(j矛)妯″瀷鍦ㄤ笉鍚岄牁(l菒ng)鍩熺殑鍏烽珨鎳�(y墨ng)鐢�銆� 4.鐔熺反鎺屾彙 Eviews 杌熶欢鐨勫熀鏈娇鐢ㄦ柟娉曪紝鑳藉浣跨敤瑭茶粺浠堕伕鎿囨ā鍨�锛岄€�(j矛n)琛� 缍�(j墨ng)婵�(j矛)闋�(y霉)娓�銆佹斂绛栬⿻鍍�銆佸璀夌爺绌剁瓑缍�(j墨ng)婵�(j矛)鍒嗘瀽銆� 5.鍏峰倷閫�(j矛n)涓€姝ュ(xu茅)缈�(x铆)鍜屾噳(y墨ng)鐢ㄨ▓閲忕稉(j墨ng)婵�(j矛)瀛�(xu茅)鐞嗚珫銆佹柟娉曠殑鍩虹(ch菙)鍜岃兘鍔�銆� 鍥�銆佹暀瀛�(xu茅)瑕佹眰 1.绱€(j矛)寰嬭姹傦細鎺堣鏁欏斧灏囨寜鐓у(xu茅)鏍℃湰绉戞暀瀛�(xu茅)宸ヤ綔鏈夐棞(gu膩n)瑕佹眰鍋氬ソ瑾茬▼鏁欏(xu茅)鍚勯爡 宸ヤ綔锛屽毚(y谩n)鏍兼寜鐓ц琛ㄨ(gu墨)瀹氱殑鏅傞枔銆佸湴榛炰笂瑾�锛屼笉閬插埌銆佷笉鏃╅€€锛屽皣鏍规摎(j霉)鏈ぇ缍辫 姹傦紝瑾�(r猫n)鐪�?zh猫n)婀攏瀹屾垚鏁欐鑸囪瑳绋跨法瀵瓑鍚勯爡瑾插墠婧�(zh菙n)鍌欏伐浣�銆� 2.鎺堣瑕佹眰锛氭巿瑾查亷绋嬪姏姹傚収(n猫i)瀹瑰厖瀵�銆佹蹇垫簴(zh菙n)纰�銆佹€濊矾娓呮櫚銆佽┏鐣ュ緱鐣�(d膩ng)銆侀倧 杓€у挤(qi谩ng)銆侀噸闆i粸绐佸嚭锛屾牴鎿�(j霉)瑷堥噺缍�(j墨ng)婵�(j矛)瀛�(xu茅)妗堜緥璎涜В鍩烘湰鐞嗚珫鍜屾椹楁柟娉�锛岄噸瑕栧皪瀛�(xu茅) 鐢熺殑瀛�(xu茅)缈�(x铆)鏂规硶鎸囧皫(d菐o)鍜岃鍫傛暀瀛�(xu茅)鏁堟灉淇℃伅鐨勫弽楗�锛屽鐝�(xi脿n)鏁欒垏瀛�(xu茅)鐨勯洐鍚戜簰鍕曪紱鍚屾檪灏� 绲�(ji茅)鍚堣绋嬬洰妯�(bi膩o)瑕佹眰锛屽仛濂借€冩牳鍏�(n猫i)瀹硅ō(sh猫)瑷�锛屽苟鍤�(y谩n)鏍兼寜鐓ф湰澶х侗瑕佹眰鍋氬ソ鍑哄嫟鐜囩当(t菕ng)瑷�銆� 浣滄キ(y猫)瑭曞児绛夊悇闋呭伐浣�銆� 3.瀛�(xu茅)鐢熷(xu茅)缈�(x铆)瑕佹眰锛氬(xu茅)缈�(x铆)鏄ぇ瀛�(xu茅)鐢熻嚜宸辩殑璨�(z茅)浠诲拰缇╁嫏(w霉)锛屽(xu茅)鐢熸噳(y墨ng)鏍规摎(j霉)瑾茬▼澶х侗瑕� 姹傚埗瀹氭湰闁€瑾茬▼瀛�(xu茅)缈�(x铆)瑷堝妰锛屽姞寮�(qi谩ng)瀛�(xu茅)妤�(y猫)绠$悊锛屽毚(y谩n)鏍艰嚜鎴戣姹傦紝鎻愬崌鑷富瀛�(xu茅)缈�(x铆)鑳藉姏锛� 涓诲嫊閬╂噳(y墨ng)瑾茬▼瀛�(xu茅)缈�(x铆)瑕佹眰銆傚弮鑸囪鍫傛暀瀛�(xu茅)娲诲嫊涓嶉伈鍒般€佷笉鏃╅€€锛岀劇姝g暥(d膩ng)鐞嗙敱涓嶈珛鍋囷紝 涓婅瑾�(r猫n)鐪熻伣璎�锛屼笉鍋氫换浣曡垏瑾插爞鏁欏(xu茅)鐒¢棞(gu膩n)浜嬪疁锛屼笉浣跨敤鎵嬫(j墨)锛岀⿳妤佃垏鎺堣鏁欏斧閫�(j矛n) 琛屾暀瀛�(xu茅)浜掑嫊锛屽悓鏅傚埄鐢ㄨ浣欐檪闁撳仛濂介爯(y霉)缈�(x铆)銆佸京(f霉)缈�(x铆)銆佽澶栨浉绫嶉柋璁€绛夊伐浣滐紝涓诲嫊鑸� 鍚屽(xu茅)闁嬪睍鍚堜綔瀛�(xu茅)缈�(x铆)锛岃獚(r猫n)鐪熷畬鎴愪换瑾叉暀甯竷缃殑瑾茬▼浣滄キ(y猫)銆� 浜�銆佽€冩牳鏂瑰紡鍙婅姹� 1. 鑰冩牳鏂瑰紡锛� 锛�1锛夊钩鏅傛垚绺� 鑰冨嫟: 鍙冭垏瑾插爞鏁欏(xu茅)娲诲嫊涓嶉伈鍒�銆佷笉鏃╅€€锛岀劇姝g暥(d膩ng)鐞嗙敱涓嶈珛鍋囷紝涓婅瑾�(r猫n)鐪熻伣 璎涳紝涓嶅仛浠讳綍鑸囪鍫傛暀瀛�(xu茅)鐒¢棞(gu膩n)浜嬪疁锛屼笉浣跨敤鎵嬫(j墨)銆傚钩鏅傛垚绺惧崰绺芥垚绺剧殑 10%銆� 瑾插爞浜ゆ祦锛氭牴鎿�(j霉)妗堜緥锛岀敱鏁欏斧閫愭闋嗘鎻愬嚭鍟忛锛屽紩灏�(d菐o)瀛�(xu茅)鐢熷弮鑸囧埌鍟忛涓締锛� 绲�(ji茅)鍚堟渚嬫暀瀛�(xu茅)鐨勬湰鍦熷寲鍜岀当(t菕ng)涓€鍖�锛屾寔绾�(x霉)寰炰笉鍚岃搴︾爺绌跺垎鏋愬悓涓€妗堜緥锛屽墲绲叉娊绻�锛� 鏂扮殑瑷堥噺鏂规硶閫愭浣跨敤锛屾瘡鍊嬫柟娉曢兘鐩镐簰鐛ㄧ珛鍙堜簰鐩歌伅(li谩n)绯�銆傝鍫備氦娴佸崰绺芥垚绺剧殑 10%銆� 浣滄キ(y猫)锛� 浣滄キ(y猫)瑕佸叿鏈夌悊璜栨€у拰瀵﹁笎鎬�锛岄伕鎿囧叿鏈変唬琛ㄦ€х稉(j墨ng)鍏哥爺绌舵暩(sh霉)鎿�(j霉)闆嗭紝甯� 缃浉鎳�(y墨ng)鐨勪綔妤�(y猫)锛屼綔妤�(y猫)娆℃暩(sh霉)鎿�(j霉)涓嶅皯浜� 5 娆�銆備綔妤�(y猫)鍗犵附鎴愮妇鐨� 10%銆� 鏈熶腑瑾茬▼璜栨枃锛氬竷缃竴娆¤绋嬭珫鏂�锛屾渶濂芥瘡浜轰竴椤岀崹绔嬪畬鎴�锛屽師鍓囦笂涓嶅垎绲勩€� 瑾茬▼璜栨枃鍗犵附鎴愮妇鐨� 20%銆� 锛�2锛夋湡鏈垚绺撅細50% 鍏�銆佽绋嬪収(n猫i)瀹� 绗竴閮ㄥ垎 鐞嗚珫璎涙巿閮ㄥ垎 绗竴璎� 缍�(j墨ng)婵�(j矛)瑷堥噺瀛�(xu茅)鐨勭壒寰佸強鐮旂┒鑼冨湇 锛堟巿瑾叉檪闁擄細绗簲瀛�(xu茅)鏈熺涓€鍛級 銆愭暀瀛�(xu茅)鐩(bi膩o)銆� 瑷堥噺缍�(j墨ng)婵�(j矛)瀛�(xu茅)鐨勬剰缇╋細鍦ㄧ稉(j墨ng)婵�(j矛)瀛�(xu茅)绉戜腑鐨勫湴浣嶃€� 瑷堥噺缍�(j墨ng)婵�(j矛)妯″瀷锛氭ā鍨�锛岀稉(j墨ng)婵�(j矛)妯� 鍨嬶紝瑷堥噺缍�(j墨ng)婵�(j矛)妯″瀷鍙婂叾鐗归粸銆� 缍�(j墨ng)婵�(j矛)瑷堥噺瀛�(xu茅)鐨勭櫦(f膩)灞曪細寤虹珛瑷堥噺缍�(j墨ng)婵�(j矛)妯″瀷鐨勬椹燂細 寤虹珛妯″瀷锛屼及瑷堝弮鏁�(sh霉)锛屾ā鍨嬫椹�锛屾ā鍨嬫噳(y墨ng)鐢�銆� 銆愰噸榛為洠榛炪€戞湰绔犳鎷粙绱硅▓閲忕稉(j墨ng)婵�(j矛)瀛�(xu茅)閫欎竴瀛�(xu茅)绉�锛岄噸榛炰娇瀛�(xu茅)鐢熶簡瑙h▓閲忕稉(j墨ng)婵�(j矛)瀛�(xu茅)鐨� 鏈夐棞(gu膩n)鍩烘湰姒傚康銆佺爺绌跺皪璞�銆佸湪鏁村€嬬稉(j墨ng)婵�(j矛)瀛�(xu茅)绉戜腑鐨勫湴浣�銆佹噳(y墨ng)鐢ㄩ牁(l菒ng)鍩熷拰寤烘ā姝ラ锛屽皪 鏈绋嬬殑鍏ㄨ矊鏈変竴鍊嬪熀鏈殑瑾�(r猫n)璀�锛屾槸鏈绋嬬殑绺界侗銆傛湰绔犵殑闆i粸鏄稉(j墨ng)婵�(j矛)璁婇噺銆佹ā 鍨�銆佽▓閲忕稉(j墨ng)婵�(j矛)妯″瀷銆佹ǎ鏈�銆佹暎榛炲湒銆佹暩(sh霉)鎿�(j霉)鐨勯鍨嬬瓑骞惧€嬪熀鏈蹇�?锛涜洘S瀛�(xu茅)鐢熶笉鑳� 鍏ㄩ儴鐞嗚В锛屼絾蹇呴爤寤虹珛涓€鍊嬫渶鍩烘湰鐨勬蹇�锛岄€欏皪鏁村€嬭绋嬬殑瀛�(xu茅)缈�(x铆)鏄潪甯� 蹇呰鐨�銆� 銆愬(xu茅) 鏅傘€戯細瑾插爞鏁欏(xu茅) 3 瀛�(xu茅)鏅�锛岃澶栬嚜涓诲(xu茅)缈�(x铆)鏅傞枔涓嶅皯浜� 2 瀛�(xu茅)鏅� 銆愭暀瀛�(xu茅)鏂规硶銆戯細璎涙巿娉� 銆愪富瑕佸収(n猫i)瀹广€戯細 绗竴绡€(ji茅) 绲�(t菕ng)瑷堝(xu茅)鍩烘湰姒傚康 涓€銆佸椹�銆佺祼(ji茅)鏋滆垏闅ㄦ(j墨)璁婇噺 浜�銆侀毃姗�(j墨)璁婇噺鐨勬鐜囧垎甯� 涓�銆佸柈涓€闅ㄦ(j墨)璁婇噺鐨勬湡鏈涘€� 鍥�銆佽伅(li谩n)鍚堟鐜囧瘑搴﹀嚱鏁�(sh霉) 浜�銆佸崝(xi茅)鏂瑰樊鑸囩浉闂�(gu膩n)绯绘暩(sh霉) 鍏€佹鎱�(t脿i)鍒嗗竷 銆愬(xu茅)缈�(x铆)鏂规硶銆戯細灏忕祫瑷庤珫銆佸椹楁搷浣� 銆愭€濊€冮銆� 1銆佷粈涔堟槸瑷堥噺缍�(j墨ng)婵�(j矛)瀛�(xu茅)锛� 2銆佽▓閲忕稉(j墨ng)婵�(j矛)瀛�(xu茅)鐨勭壒榛�锛� 绗簩璎� 涓€鍏冪窔鎬у洖姝告ā鍨� 锛堟巿瑾叉檪闁擄細绗簲瀛�(xu茅)鏈熺浜屽懆锛� 銆愭暀瀛�(xu茅)鐩(bi膩o)銆� 缍�(j墨ng)閬庨€欎竴绔犵殑瀛�(xu茅)缈�(x铆)鍚庯紝瑕佹眰瀛�(xu茅)鐢熻兘澶犵崹绔嬪畬鎴愬缓绔嬩竴鍏冪窔鎬ц▓閲忕稉(j墨ng)婵�(j矛)瀛�(xu茅)妯″瀷鐨� 鍏ㄩ亷绋嬪伐浣�锛屽苟鑳藉鎳�(y墨ng)鐢ㄨ▓閲忕稉(j墨ng)婵�(j矛)瀛�(xu茅)杌熶欢灏嶅叾閫�(j矛n)琛屼及瑷�銆� 銆愰噸榛為洠榛炪€� 锛�1锛夊鍏冪窔鎬у洖姝告ā鍨嬬殑鏈€灏忎簩涔樹及瑷堬紙OLS锛�锛涳紙2锛夊湪鍩烘湰鍋囪ō(sh猫)锛�3锛夋 瑕�(gu墨)鏂圭▼绱氾紙4锛夎▓閲忕稉(j墨ng)婵�(j矛)瀛�(xu茅)杌熶欢鍖呪€斺€擡views 绨′粙銆� 銆愬(xu茅) 鏅傘€戯細瑾插爞鏁欏(xu茅) 3 瀛�(xu茅)鏅�锛岃澶栬嚜涓诲(xu茅)缈�(x铆)鏅傞枔涓嶅皯浜� 2 瀛�(xu茅)鏅� 銆愭暀瀛�(xu茅)鏂规硶銆戯細璎涙巿娉�锛屾渚嬫暀瀛�(xu茅) 銆愪富瑕佸収(n猫i)瀹广€戯細 绗竴绡€(ji茅) 缍�(j墨ng)婵�(j矛)妯″瀷 涓€銆佺⒑瀹氭€ч棞(gu膩n)绯� 浜�銆佺当(t菕ng)瑷堥棞(gu膩n)绯伙紙鎴栬€呭洖姝搁棞(gu膩n)绯伙級銆佸洜鏋滈棞(gu膩n)绯� 涓�銆侀棞(gu膩n)浜庣窔鎬х殑鍏╃ó瑙i噵 绗簩绡€(ji茅) 瑷堥噺妯″瀷 涓€銆佷竴鍏冨洖姝告柟绋� 浜�銆佹ā鍨嬪亣瀹� 绗笁绡€(ji茅) 鍙冩暩(sh霉)浼拌▓ 涓€銆佹畼宸垏娈樺樊骞虫柟鍜� 浜�銆佹瑕�(gu墨)鏂圭▼绲� 涓�銆佷及瑷堥噺 銆愭€濊€冮銆� 1銆佷粈涔堟槸涓€鍏冪窔鎬у洖姝告ā鍨�锛� 2銆佹渶灏忎簩涔樻硶鐨勫収(n猫i)瀹规槸浠€涔堬紵 3銆佷竴鍏冪窔鎬у洖姝告ā鍨嬬殑鍋囧畾姊濅欢鏄粈涔堬紵 銆愪綔妤�(y猫)椤屻€慞65,3-4,骞跺湪涓嬪懆瑾插墠鎻愪氦 绗笁璎� OLS 浼拌▓閲忔€ц唱(zh矛) 锛堟巿瑾叉檪闁擄細绗簲瀛�(xu茅)鏈熺涓夊懆锛� 銆愭暀瀛�(xu茅)鐩(bi膩o)銆� 缍�(j墨ng)閬庨€欎竴绔犵殑瀛�(xu茅)缈�(x铆)鍚�锛屽湪瀛�(xu茅)鐢熻兘澶犵崹绔嬪畬鎴愬缓绔嬩竴鍏冪窔鎬ц▓閲忕稉(j墨ng)婵�(j矛)瀛�(xu茅)妯″瀷鍚庯紝 鎺屾彙鍙冩暩(sh霉)浼拌▓鐨勬€ц唱(zh矛)鍙婃(bi膩o)婧�(zh菙n)銆� 銆愰噸榛為洠榛炪€� 锛�1锛夊弮鏁�(sh霉)鎬ц唱(zh矛)锛�2锛夊弮鏁�(sh霉)鍒嗗竷锛�3锛夊弮鏁�(sh霉)鍒嗗竷鐨勫亣瀹氭浠� 銆愬(xu茅) 鏅傘€戯細瑾插爞鏁欏(xu茅) 3 瀛�(xu茅)鏅�锛岃澶栬嚜涓诲(xu茅)缈�(x铆)鏅傞枔涓嶅皯浜� 2 瀛�(xu茅)鏅� 銆愭暀瀛�(xu茅)鏂规硶銆戯細璎涙巿娉� 銆愪富瑕佸収(n猫i)瀹广€戯細 绗竴绡€(ji茅) 浼拌▓閲忕殑鎶芥ǎ鎬ц唱(zh矛) 涓€銆侀毃姗�(j墨)鎬� 浜�銆佺窔鎬ф€�銆佺劇鍋忔€� 涓�銆佹湁鏁堟€� 绗簩绡€(ji茅) 楂樻柉棣埦鍙か瀹氱悊 涓€銆佸収(n猫i)瀹� 浜屻€佽瓑鏄� 绗笁绡€(ji茅) 浼拌▓閲忕殑姒傜巼鍒嗗竷 涓€銆佸垎甯� 浜�銆佸洖姝告柟宸及瑷堥噺 銆愪綔妤�(y猫)椤屻€慞65,3-4,骞跺湪涓嬪懆瑾插墠鎻愪氦 P8,12锛汸115,3;P142,15; 绗洓璎� 妯″瀷鎺ㄦ柗鍙婃椹� 锛堟巿瑾叉檪闁擄細绗簲瀛�(xu茅)鏈熺鍥涘懆锛� 銆愭暀瀛�(xu茅)鐩(bi膩o)銆戯細鎺屾彙鍙冩暩(sh霉)妾㈤鍙婂弮鏁�(sh霉) t 妾㈤锛屽苟鑳藉?q奴)胃鎴戦埅顣�?sh霉)鍊煎強绱勬潫閫�(j矛n)琛屾 椹楄ō(sh猫)瑷�锛岀悊瑙f椹楃殑鍏╅閷锛岃兘澶犻€�(j矛n)琛岄爯(y霉)娓�銆� 銆愰噸榛為洠榛炪€� 锛�1锛夊弮鏁�(sh霉)妾㈤鍙婂弮鏁�(sh霉) t 妾㈤锛�2锛夊叐椤為尟瑾� 銆愬(xu茅) 鏅傘€戯細瑾插爞鏁欏(xu茅) 3 瀛�(xu茅)鏅�锛岃澶栬嚜涓诲(xu茅)缈�(x铆)鏅傞枔涓嶅皯浜� 2 瀛�(xu茅)鏅� 銆愭暀瀛�(xu茅)鏂规硶銆戯細璎涙巿娉� 銆愪富瑕佸収(n猫i)瀹广€� 绗竴绡€(ji茅) 鍗€(q奴)闁撲及瑷� 涓€銆佸崁(q奴)闁撲及瑷堢悊璜� 浜屻€乼 鍒嗗竷 绗簩绡€(ji茅) 鍋囪ō(sh猫)妾㈤ 涓€銆佸亣瑷�(sh猫)妾㈤鍘熺悊 浜�銆佹椹楃当(t菕ng)瑷堥噺 涓夈€佹椹楅亷绋� 鍥�銆佸叐椤為尟瑾� 绗笁绡€(ji茅) 闋�(y霉)娓� 涓€銆侀爯(y霉)娓� 浜�銆佹柟宸� 涓�銆佸崁(q奴)闁撹垏闋�(y霉)娓付 銆愪綔妤�(y猫)椤屻€慞85,12锛� 骞跺湪涓嬪懆瑾插墠鎻愪氦 绗簲璎� 妯″瀷鍫卞憡鑸囬伕鎿� 锛堟巿瑾叉檪闁擄細绗簲瀛�(xu茅)鏈熺浜斿懆锛� 銆愭暀瀛�(xu茅)鐩(bi膩o)銆戯細鎺屾彙骞虫柟鍜屽垎瑙o紝寰�(f霉)鐩搁棞(gu膩n)绯绘暩(sh霉) R2 鐨勫畾缇╁拰瑙i噵锛屽嚱鏁�(sh霉)褰㈠紡閬告搰 鐨勫師鍓�銆� 銆愰噸榛為洠榛炪€� 锛�1锛夊钩鏂瑰拰鍒嗚В锛�2锛夊嚱鏁�(sh霉)褰㈠紡閬告搰鐨勫師鍓� 銆愬(xu茅) 鏅傘€戯細瑾插爞鏁欏(xu茅) 3 瀛�(xu茅)鏅�锛岃澶栬嚜涓诲(xu茅)缈�(x铆)鏅傞枔涓嶅皯浜� 2 瀛�(xu茅)鏅� 銆愭暀瀛�(xu茅)鏂规硶銆戯細璎涙巿娉�锛屾渚嬫硶锛岃◣璜栨硶 銆愪富瑕佸収(n猫i)瀹广€� 绗竴绡€(ji茅) 鍒ゅ畾绯绘暩(sh霉) 涓€銆佸钩鏂瑰拰鐨勫垎瑙� 浜�銆佷笁绋钩鏂瑰拰鈥斺€擳SS锛孍SS锛孯SS鈥斺€旂殑鍚京 涓�銆佸京(f霉)鐩搁棞(gu膩n)绯绘暩(sh霉) R2 鐨勫畾缇╁拰瑙i噵 绗簩绡€(ji茅) 閬告搰鍑芥暩(sh霉)褰㈠紡 涓€銆佸父鐢ㄥ舰寮� 浜屻€侀伕鎿囩殑鍘熷墖 绗笁绡€(ji茅) 姝f厠(t脿i)鍋囧畾 涓€銆佸亣瑷�(sh猫) 浜�銆丣 绲�(t菕ng)瑷堥噺 涓�銆佹噳(y墨ng)鐢� 銆愪綔妤�(y猫)椤屻€慞115,3;骞跺湪涓嬪懆瑾插墠鎻愪氦 绗叚璎� 澶氬厓鍥炴妯″瀷 锛堟巿瑾叉檪闁擄細绗簲瀛�(xu茅)鏈熺鍏懆锛� 銆愭暀瀛�(xu茅)鐩(bi膩o)銆戯細鍙冩暩(sh霉)鍚京锛屽亣瀹氭浠�锛屽弮鏁�(sh霉)浼拌▓閲忔€ц唱(zh矛)锛屾ā鍨嬫椹�銆� 銆愰噸榛為洠榛炪€� 锛�1锛夊弮鏁�(sh霉)鍚京锛�2锛夋ā鍨嬫椹� 銆愬(xu茅) 鏅傘€戯細瑾插爞鏁欏(xu茅) 3 瀛�(xu茅)鏅�锛岃澶栬嚜涓诲(xu茅)缈�(x铆)鏅傞枔涓嶅皯浜� 2 瀛�(xu茅)鏅� 銆愭暀瀛�(xu茅)鏂规硶銆戯細璎涙巿娉曪紝妗堜緥娉�锛岃◣璜栨硶 銆愪富瑕佸収(n猫i)瀹广€� 绗竴绡€(ji茅) 妯″瀷瑷�(sh猫)瀹� 涓€銆佸弮鏁�(sh霉)鍚京 浜�銆佸亣瑷�(sh猫) 绗簩绡€(ji茅) 鍙冩暩(sh霉)浼拌▓鑸囨€ц唱(zh矛) 涓€銆丱LS 娉� 浜�銆佸洖姝告柟宸殑浼拌▓ 涓夈€佸弮鏁�(sh霉)浼拌▓閲忕殑鎬ц唱(zh矛) 绗笁绡€(ji茅) 鍗€(q奴)闁撲及瑷堝強鍋囪ō(sh猫)妾㈤ 涓€銆佸崁(q奴)闁撲及瑷� 浜�銆佸柈鍊嬪弮鏁�(sh霉)妾㈤ 涓夈€佹ā鍨嬫椹� 銆愪綔妤�(y猫)椤屻€慞142,15;骞跺湪涓嬪懆瑾插墠鎻愪氦 绗竷璎� 澶氬厓妯″瀷鐨勬ā鍨嬭ō(sh猫)瀹氬亸瑾� 锛堟巿瑾叉檪闁擄細绗簲瀛�(xu茅)鏈熺涓冨懆锛� 銆愭暀瀛�(xu茅)鐩(bi膩o)銆戯細F 鍒嗗竷鍙婃椹�锛屽叡绶氭€э紝鎺у埗璁婇噺 銆愰噸榛為洠榛炪€戯細F 鍒嗗竷鍙婃椹�锛岄伜婕忚畩閲� 銆愬(xu茅) 鏅傘€戯細瑾插爞鏁欏(xu茅) 3 瀛�(xu茅)鏅�锛岃澶栬嚜涓诲(xu茅)缈�(x铆)鏅傞枔涓嶅皯浜� 2 瀛�(xu茅)鏅� 銆愭暀瀛�(xu茅)鏂规硶銆戯細璎涙巿娉�锛屾渚嬫硶锛岃◣璜栨硶 銆愪富瑕佸収(n猫i)瀹广€� 绗竴绡€(ji茅) F 妾㈤鍙婃ā鍨嬪欢浼� 涓€銆丗 鍒嗗竷 浜�銆丗 妾㈤ 涓夈€丗 鑸� t 妾㈤ 绗簩绡€(ji茅) 妾㈤缍�(j墨ng)婵�(j矛)涓婄殑鍋囪ō(sh猫) 涓€銆佸唬鍛婃渚� 浜�銆佹渶鍎�(y艒u)寤e憡姘村钩 涓�銆佹渶鍎�(y艒u)鍍规牸 绗笁绡€(ji茅) 鍏辩窔鎬� 涓€銆佸畾缇� 浜�銆佸悗鏋� 涓夈€佹柟娉� 绗洓绡€(ji茅) 鎺у埗璁婇噺 涓€銆佸畾缇� 浜屻€侀伜婕忚畩閲忓悗鏋� 涓�銆佹柟娉� 銆愭€濊€冮銆�1.F 鑸� t 鐨勫崁(q奴)鍒� 2. 閬烘紡璁婇噺鐧�(f膩)鐢熺殑姊濅欢鏄粈涔�锛� 3.鎺у埗璁婇噺瓒婂瓒婂ソ鍡庯紵 銆愪綔妤�(y猫)椤屻€� P169,10;P197,13;骞跺湪涓嬪懆瑾插墠鎻愪氦 绗叓璎� 铏涙摤璁婇噺 锛堟巿瑾叉檪闁擄細绗簲瀛�(xu茅)鏈熺鍏懆锛� 銆愭暀瀛�(xu茅)鐩(bi膩o)銆戯細瀹氱京锛屽姞娉曞拰鏂滅巼妯″瀷锛屽弮鏁�(sh霉)鍚京 銆愰噸榛為洠榛炪€戯細鍔犳硶鍜屾枩鐜囨ā鍨�锛屽弮鏁�(sh霉)鍚京 銆愬(xu茅) 鏅傘€戯細瑾插爞鏁欏(xu茅) 3 瀛�(xu茅)鏅�锛岃澶栬嚜涓诲(xu茅)缈�(x铆)鏅傞枔涓嶅皯浜� 2 瀛�(xu茅)鏅� 銆愭暀瀛�(xu茅)鏂规硶銆戯細璎涙巿娉曪紝妗堜緥娉�锛岃◣璜栨硶 銆愪富瑕佸収(n猫i)瀹广€� 绗竴绡€(ji茅) 鎴窛妯″瀷 涓€銆佽櫅鎿畩閲忕殑鍩烘湰姒傚康 浜�銆佸姞娉曟ā鍨� 涓�銆佸弮鏁�(sh霉)鍚京 绗簩绡€(ji茅) 鏂滅巼妯″瀷 涓€銆佹柟娉� 浜屻€佸弮鏁�(sh霉)鍚京 绗笁绡€(ji茅)鎳�(y墨ng)鐢� 涓€銆佹埧灞嬪児鏍兼渚� 浜�銆佸伐璩囨渚� 銆愭€濊€冮銆�1. 铏涙摤璁婇噺瑷�(sh猫)瀹氱殑鍘熷墖锛� 2. 鑸変緥瑾槑铏涙摤璁婇噺鐨勫叾瀹冩噳(y墨ng)鐢� 绗節璎� 闈炵窔鎬фā鍨� 锛堟巿瑾叉檪闁擄細绗簲瀛�(xu茅)鏈熺涔濆懆锛� 銆愭暀瀛�(xu茅)鐩(bi膩o)銆戯細瀹氱京锛屽闋呭紡妯″瀷锛岀啊鍠潪绶氭€х殑鍚勭ó椤炲瀷锛孡ogistic 澧為暦鏇� 绶�銆� 銆愰噸榛為洠榛炪€戯細澶氶爡寮忔ā鍨嬶紝Logistic 澧為暦鏇茬窔锛� 銆愬(xu茅) 鏅傘€戯細瑾插爞鏁欏(xu茅) 3 瀛�(xu茅)鏅傦紝瑾插鑷富瀛�(xu茅)缈�(x铆)鏅傞枔涓嶅皯浜� 2 瀛�(xu茅)鏅� 銆愭暀瀛�(xu茅)鏂规硶銆戯細璎涙巿娉曪紝妗堜緥娉�锛岃◣璜栨硶 銆愪富瑕佸収(n猫i)瀹广€� 绗竴绡€(ji茅) 澶氶爡寮忔ā鍨� 涓€銆佹ā鍨嬬ó椤� 浜屻€佷氦鍙夐爡 绗簩绡€(ji茅) 绨″柈闈炵窔鎬� 涓€銆佷及瑷� 浜�銆佹渚� 绗笁绡€(ji茅) Logistic 澧為暦鏇茬窔 涓€銆佹洸绶氬舰寮� 浜�銆佷及瑷� 涓�銆佹渚� 銆愪綔妤�(y猫)椤屻€� P230锛�3;骞跺湪涓嬪懆瑾插墠鎻愪氦 绗崄璎� 鐣版柟宸紙涓€锛� 锛堟巿瑾叉檪闁擄細绗簲瀛�(xu茅)鏈熺鍗佸懆锛� 銆愭暀瀛�(xu茅)鐩(bi膩o)銆戯細鐣版柟宸殑鏈唱(zh矛)銆佸奖闊垮強瑙f焙鏂规硶 銆愰噸榛為洠榛炪€戯細鐣版柟宸殑鍚庢灉鍙婅В姹烘柟娉� 銆愬(xu茅) 鏅傘€戯細瑾插爞鏁欏(xu茅) 3 瀛�(xu茅)鏅�锛岃澶栬嚜涓诲(xu茅)缈�(x铆)鏅傞枔涓嶅皯浜� 2 瀛�(xu茅)鏅� 銆愭暀瀛�(xu茅)鏂规硶銆戯細璎涙巿娉�锛屾渚嬫硶锛岃◣璜栨硶 銆愪富瑕佸収(n猫i)瀹广€� 绗竴绡€(ji茅) 鐣版柟宸殑鏈唱(zh矛) 涓€銆佹渚� 浜�銆佸惈缇� 绗簩绡€(ji茅) 褰遍熆 涓€銆佸悗鏋� 浜�銆乄LS 绗笁绡€(ji茅) 姣斾緥鐣版柟宸� 涓€銆佸舰寮� 浜屻€佽檿鐞嗘柟娉� 銆愭€濊€冮銆戠暟鏂瑰樊瀛樺湪鏅傚繀闋堜娇鐢� wls 浼拌▓鏂规硶鍡�锛� 绗崄涓€璎� 鐣版柟宸紙浜岋級 锛堟巿瑾叉檪闁擄細绗簲瀛�(xu茅)鏈熺鍗佷竴鍛級 銆愭暀瀛�(xu茅)鐩(bi膩o)銆戯細鐣版柟宸殑妾㈤鏂规硶锛屽唬缇� OLS 娉� 銆愰噸榛為洠榛炪€戯細鐣版柟宸殑妾㈤鏂规硶 銆愬(xu茅) 鏅傘€戯細瑾插爞鏁欏(xu茅) 3 瀛�(xu茅)鏅�锛岃澶栬嚜涓诲(xu茅)缈�(x铆)鏅傞枔涓嶅皯浜� 2 瀛�(xu茅)鏅� 銆愭暀瀛�(xu茅)鏂规硶銆戯細璎涙巿娉�锛屾渚嬫硶锛岃◣璜栨硶 銆愪富瑕佸収(n猫i)瀹广€� 绗洓绡€(ji茅) 妾㈤鐣版柟宸� 涓€銆佸湒褰� 浜�銆丟Q 妾㈤ 涓�銆乄hite 妾㈤ 鍥�銆佹渚� 绗簲绡€(ji茅) 寤g京 OLS 涓€銆佸唬缇� OLS 浜�銆佹噳(y墨ng)鐢� 銆愪綔妤�(y猫)椤屻€� P253锛�5;骞跺湪涓嬪懆瑾插墠鎻愪氦 绗崄浜岃瑳 鑷浉闂�(gu膩n)锛堜竴锛� 锛堟巿瑾叉檪闁擄細绗簲瀛�(xu茅)鏈熺鍗佷簩鍛級 銆愭暀瀛�(xu茅)鐩(bi膩o)銆戯細鑷浉闂�(gu膩n)鐨勬湰璩�(zh矛)銆佸奖闊垮強瑙f焙鏂规硶 銆愰噸榛為洠榛炪€戯細鑷浉闂�(gu膩n)鐨勫悗鏋滃強寤g京宸垎娉� 銆愬(xu茅) 鏅傘€戯細瑾插爞鏁欏(xu茅) 3 瀛�(xu茅)鏅�锛岃澶栬嚜涓诲(xu茅)缈�(x铆)鏅傞枔涓嶅皯浜� 2 瀛�(xu茅)鏅� 銆愭暀瀛�(xu茅)鏂规硶銆戯細璎涙巿娉�锛屾渚嬫硶锛岃◣璜栨硶 銆愪富瑕佸収(n猫i)瀹广€� 绗竴绡€(ji茅) 鑷浉闂�(gu膩n)鐨勬湰璩�(zh矛) 涓€銆佽嚜鐩搁棞(gu膩n)鐨勬蹇� 浜�銆佺敘(ch菐n)鐢熷師鍥� 绗簩绡€(ji茅) 涓€闅庤嚜鐩搁棞(gu膩n) 涓€銆佹柟绋� 浜�銆佹柟宸� 涓夈€佺浉闂�(gu膩n)绯绘暩(sh霉) 绗笁绡€(ji茅) 鍚庢灉 涓€銆佷及瑷堥噺 浜�銆佷及瑷堥噺鐨勬柟宸� 銆愭€濊€冮銆戠暥(d膩ng)瀛樺湪鑷浉闂�(gu膩n)鏅傚繀闋堥€�(j矛n)琛屽唬缇╁樊鍒嗕及瑷堝棊锛� 绗崄涓夎瑳 鑷浉闂�(gu膩n)锛堜簩锛� 锛堟巿瑾叉檪闁擄細绗簲瀛�(xu茅)鏈熺鍗佷笁鍛級 銆愭暀瀛�(xu茅)鐩(bi膩o)銆戯細鑷浉闂�(gu膩n)鐨勬椹楀強寤g京宸垎娉� 銆愰噸榛為洠榛炪€戯細鑷浉闂�(gu膩n)鐨勬椹� 銆愬(xu茅) 鏅傘€戯細瑾插爞鏁欏(xu茅) 3 瀛�(xu茅)鏅傦紝瑾插鑷富瀛�(xu茅)缈�(x铆)鏅傞枔涓嶅皯浜� 2 瀛�(xu茅)鏅� 銆愭暀瀛�(xu茅)鏂规硶銆戯細璎涙巿娉�锛屾渚嬫硶锛岃◣璜栨硶 銆愪富瑕佸収(n猫i)瀹广€� 绗洓绡€(ji茅) 寤g京宸垎 涓€銆佽畩鎻� 浜�銆亀eiston 璁婃彌 鍥�銆佷及瑷堢浉闂�(gu膩n)绯绘暩(sh霉)蟻 鐨勫咕绋柟娉曘€� 绗簲绡€(ji茅) 鑷浉闂�(gu膩n)妾㈤ 涓€銆佽嚜鐩搁棞(gu膩n)鐨勬椹椻€斺€擠W 妾㈤ 浜屻€佹椹楃当(t菕ng)瑷堥噺鑸囩浉闂�(gu膩n)绯绘暩(sh霉)鐨勯棞(gu膩n)绯�锛屾椹楁椹� 涓�銆丩M 妾㈤ 銆愪綔妤�(y猫)椤屻€� P280锛�9;骞跺湪涓嬪懆瑾插墠鎻愪氦 绗崄鍥涜瑳 鑱�(li谩n)绔嬫柟绋嬫ā鍨� 锛堟巿瑾叉檪闁擄細绗簲瀛�(xu茅)鏈熺鍗佸洓鍛級 銆愭暀瀛�(xu茅)鐩殑銆戯細鎺屾彙鑱�(li谩n)绔嬫柟绋嬫ā鍨嬬殑鎬ц唱(zh矛)锛屽拰妯″瀷鐨勮瓨鍒ュ拰浼拌▓鏂规硶銆� 銆愰噸榛為洠榛炪€戯細 妯″瀷璀樺垾锛屼及瑷堟柟娉� 銆愬(xu茅) 鏅傘€戯細瑾插爞鏁欏(xu茅) 3 瀛�(xu茅)鏅�锛岃澶栬嚜涓诲(xu茅)缈�(x铆)鏅傞枔涓嶅皯浜� 2 瀛�(xu茅)鏅� 銆愭暀瀛�(xu茅)鏂规硶銆戯細璎涙巿娉曪紝妗堜緥娉�锛岃◣璜栨硶 銆愪富瑕佸収(n猫i)瀹广€� 绗竴绡€(ji茅)锛氳伅(li谩n)绔嬫柟绋嬬殑鎬ц唱(zh矛) 涓€銆佷緵绲﹀拰闇€姹傛ā鍨� 浜�銆佸収(n猫i)鐢熸€у晱椤� 绗簩绡€(ji茅)锛氳伅(li谩n)绔嬫柟绋嬫ā鍨嬬殑璀樺垾鍟忛 涓€銆佽瓨鍒� 浜�銆佽瓨鍒ョ殑鏂规硶 绗笁绡€(ji茅) 鑱�(li谩n)绔嬫ā鍨嬬殑浼拌▓ 涓€銆佺啊鍖栨ā鍨� 浜�銆佸叐闅庢 OLS 娉� 銆愪綔妤�(y猫)椤屻€� P317锛�5;骞跺湪涓嬪懆瑾插墠鎻愪氦 绗崄浜旇瑳 瀵﹁瓑鍫卞憡鍙婃暩(sh霉)鎿�(j霉) 锛堟巿瑾叉檪闁擄細绗簲瀛�(xu茅)鏈熺鍗佷簲鍛級 銆愭暀瀛�(xu茅)鐩殑銆戯細鎺屾彙瀵﹁瓑鍫卞憡鐨勭祼(ji茅)妲�(g貌u)锛屾暩(sh霉)鎿�(j霉)鎼滈泦鏂规硶鍙婂父鐢ㄦ暩(sh霉)鎿�(j霉)搴� 銆愰噸榛為洠榛炪€戯細瀵﹁瓑鍫卞憡鐨勭祼(ji茅)妲�(g貌u) 銆愬(xu茅) 鏅傘€戯細瑾插爞鏁欏(xu茅) 3 瀛�(xu茅)鏅�锛岃澶栬嚜涓诲(xu茅)缈�(x铆)鏅傞枔涓嶅皯浜� 2 瀛�(xu茅)鏅� 銆愭暀瀛�(xu茅)鏂规硶銆戯細璎涙巿娉曪紝妗堜緥娉�锛岃◣璜栨硶 銆愪富瑕佸収(n猫i)瀹广€� 绗竴绡€(ji茅) 閬搁 涓€銆佺悊璜栨€� 浜�銆佹噳(y墨ng)鐢ㄦ€� 绗簩绡€(ji茅) 鏍煎紡 涓€銆佸熀鏈姹� 浜�銆�10 鍊嬪収(n猫i)瀹� 绗笁绡€(ji茅) 鏁�(sh霉)鎿�(j霉) 涓€銆佹暩(sh霉)鎿�(j霉)渚嗘簮 浜屻€佺悊瑙f暩(sh霉)鎿�(j霉) 銆愭€濊€冮銆戣▓閲忔ā鍨嬬殑璁婇噺闂�(gu膩n)绯绘槸鍥犳灉闂�(gu膩n)绯诲棊锛熻畩閲忚秺澶氳秺濂藉棊锛� 涓冦€佽绋嬪収(n猫i)瀹硅(di脿o)鏁磋鏄� 1銆佸彲閬╃暥(d膩ng)澧炲姞鏅傞枔搴忓垪鍏�(n猫i)瀹� 2銆佽伅(li谩n)绔嬫柟绋嬬祫鍙互鐢辨化鍚庢ā鍨嬫浛浠�銆� 绗簩閮ㄥ垎 瑷堥噺缍�(j墨ng)婵�(j矛)瀛�(xu茅)瑾茬▼瀵﹂ 瀵﹂涓€锛氱啊鍠窔鎬у洖姝� 锛堝椹楁檪闁擄細绗簲瀛�(xu茅)鏈熺鍥涘懆锛� 涓€銆佸椹�?z膩i)搴锋ā璧巻鎵捐緣顎濃偓鎬у洖姝告ā鍨嬬殑浼拌▓鑸囨噳(y墨ng)鐢紝鐔熸倝 EViews 鐨勫熀鏈� 鎿嶄綔銆� 浜屻€佸椹楄姹傦細鎳�(y墨ng)鐢ㄦ暀鏉愰鍝佹敮鍑烘渚嬪仛涓€鍏冨洖姝稿苟鍋氶爯(y霉)娓�銆� 涓�銆佸椹楀師鐞嗭細鏅€氭渶灏忎簩涔樻硶 鍥�銆侀爯(y霉)鍌欑煡璀橈細鏈€灏忎簩涔樻硶浼拌▓鐨勫師鐞�銆乼 妾㈤銆佹摤鍚堝劒(y艒u)搴︽椹椼€侀粸闋�(y霉)娓拰 鍗€(q奴)闁撻爯(y霉)娓� 浜�銆佸椹楁椹� 1锛庡缓绔嬪伐浣滄枃浠跺苟閷勫叆鏁�(sh霉)鎿�(j霉) 锛�1锛夐洐鎿婃闈� EViews 蹇€熷暉鍕曞湒妯�(bi膩o)锛屽暉鍕� EViews5.1 绋嬪簭銆� 锛�2锛夐粸鎿婁富鐣岄潰鑿滃柈 File\New\Worekfile锛屽綀鍑� Workfile Create 灏嶈┍妗�銆傚湪 Workfile Create 灏嶈┍妗嗗乏鍋�(c猫) Workfile structure type 娆勪腑閬告搰 Unstructured/Undated 閬搁爡锛屽湪鍙冲伌(c猫) Date Range 涓~鍏ユǎ鏈€嬫暩(sh霉) 31銆� 2锛�?d膩ng)?sh霉)鎿�(j霉)鐨勬弿杩扮当(t菕ng)瑷堝拰鍦栧舰绲�(t菕ng)瑷� 浠ヤ笂寤虹珛鐨勫簭鍒� y 鍜� x 涔嬪悗锛屽彲灏嶅叾鍋氭弿杩扮当(t菕ng)瑷堝拰鍦栧舰绲�(t菕ng)瑷堜互鎶婃彙瑭叉暩(sh霉)鎿�(j霉)鐨� 涓€浜涚当(t菕ng)瑷堝爆鎬�銆� 锛�1锛夋弿杩扮当(t菕ng)瑷� 锛�2锛夊湒褰㈢当(t菕ng)瑷� 3锛庤ō(sh猫)瀹氭ā鍨�锛岀敤鏅€氭渶灏忎簩涔樻硶浼拌▓鍙冩暩(sh霉) 瑷�(sh猫)瀹氭ā鍨嬬偤 銆� 4锛庢ā鍨嬫椹� 锛�1锛夌稉(j墨ng)婵�(j矛)鎰忕京妾㈤銆� 锛�2锛塼 妾㈤鍜屾摤鍚堝劒(y艒u)搴︽椹�銆� 5锛庢噳(y墨ng)鐢細鍥炴闋�(y霉)娓� 锛�1锛夎瑙i噵璁婇噺 Y 鐨勫€嬪垾鍊煎拰骞冲潎鍊肩殑榛為爯(y霉)娓� 锛�2锛夊崁(q奴)闁撻爯(y霉)娓�銆� 瀵﹂浜� 澶氬厓绶氭€у洖姝告ā鍨嬪拰澶氶噸鍏辩窔鎬� 锛堝椹楁檪闁擄細绗簲瀛�(xu茅)鏈熺涓冨懆锛� 涓€銆佸椹�?z膩i)搴锋ā璧巻鏂╁槪顎濃偓鎬у洖姝告ā鍨嬬殑浼拌▓鏂规硶銆佹帉鎻″閲嶅叡绶氭€фā鍨嬬殑璀樺垾 鍜屼慨姝�銆� 浜�銆佸椹楄姹傦細鎳�(y墨ng)鐢ㄦ暀鏉愮椋熷搧鏀嚭闋佹渚嬪仛澶氬厓绶氭€у洖姝告ā鍨�锛屽苟璀樺垾鍜屼慨姝� 澶氶噸鍏辩窔鎬с€� 涓�銆佸椹楀師鐞嗭細鏅€氭渶灏忎簩涔樻硶銆佺啊鍠浉闂�(gu膩n)绯绘暩(sh霉)妾㈤娉�銆佺稖鍚堝垽鏂锋硶銆侀€愭鍥炴 娉曘€� 鍥�銆侀爯(y霉)鍌欑煡璀橈細鏈€灏忎簩涔樻硶浼拌▓鐨勫師鐞�銆乼 妾㈤銆丗 妾㈤銆� 鍊笺€� 浜�銆佸椹楁椹� 1.瑷�(sh猫)瀹氬苟浼拌▓澶氬厓绶氭€у洖姝告ā鍨� 2.澶氶噸鍏辩窔鎬фā鍨嬬殑璀樺垾 2.1 缍滃悎鍒ゆ柗娉� 2.2 绨″柈鐩搁棞(gu膩n)绯绘暩(sh霉)妾㈤娉� 3.澶氶噸鍏辩窔鎬фā鍨嬬殑淇 闂�(gu膩n)浜庡閲嶅叡绶氭€х殑淇鏂规硶涓€鑸湁璁婇噺璁婃彌娉�銆佸厛椹椾俊鎭硶銆侀€愭鍥炴娉曠瓑锛� 閫欓噷鎴戝€戝儏浠嬬垂鍚戝墠閫愭鍥炴鐨勫叿楂斿仛娉曪紝渚嗘笡灏戝叡绶氭€х殑鍤�(y谩n)閲嶇▼搴�銆傝€屽叾浠栫殑 淇鏂规硶鏈枃娌掗€愪竴浠嬬垂锛屾劅鑸堣叮鐨勮畝鑰呭彲鍙冮柋鐩搁棞(gu膩n)瑷堥噺缍�(j墨ng)婵�(j矛)鏇哥睄銆� 瀵﹂涓� 铏涙摤瑙i噵璁婇噺鍥炴 锛堝椹楁檪闁擄細绗簲瀛�(xu茅)鏈熺涔濆懆锛� 涓€銆佸椹�?z膩i)搴锋ā璧巻浠楁憘M瑙i噵璁婇噺鍥炴妯″瀷鐨勪及瑷堣垏鎳�(y墨ng)鐢�锛岀啛鎮� EViews 鐨勫熀鏈� 鎿嶄綔銆� 浜�銆佸椹楄姹傦細鎳�(y墨ng)鐢� CGSS2010 鏁�(sh霉)鎿�(j霉)鍋氬洖姝稿垎鏋愩€� 涓�銆佸椹楀師鐞嗭細鏅€氭渶灏忎簩涔樻硶銆佽櫅鎿畩閲忚ō(sh猫)缃師鍓�銆佸垎娈电窔鎬у洖姝� 鍥�銆侀爯(y霉)鍌欑煡璀橈細鏈€灏忎簩涔樻硶浼拌▓鐨勫師鐞�銆乼 妾㈤銆佹摤鍚堝劒(y艒u)搴︽椹椼€佽櫅鎿畩閲忚ō(sh猫)缃� 闄烽槺 浜�銆佸椹楁椹� 銆愭渚嬨€� 铏涙摤瑙i噵璁婇噺鍥炴鈥斺€擟GSS2010 鏁�(sh霉)鎿�(j霉)锛氭€у垾姝ц 1锛庡缓绔嬪伐浣滄枃浠跺苟閷勫叆鏁�(sh霉)鎿�(j霉) 2锛庢ā鍨嬭ō(sh猫)瀹氾細鎴窛鍜屾枩鐜囨ā鍨� 3. 浼拌▓鑸囨椹� 4锛庣祼(ji茅)鏋滃垎鏋� 瀵﹂鍥� 鐣版柟宸€у拰鑷浉闂�(gu膩n) 锛堝椹楁檪闁擄細绗簲瀛�(xu茅)鏈熷崄涓€銆佸崄涓夊懆锛� 涓€銆佸椹�?z膩i)搴�?鎺屾彙鐣版柟宸拰鑷浉闂�(gu膩n)妯″瀷鐨勬椹楁柟娉曡垏铏曠悊鏂规硶. 浜�銆佸椹楄姹� 1锛庢噳(y墨ng)鐢ㄦ暀鏉� foodexp.dat 鏁�(sh霉)鎿�(j霉)鍋氱暟鏂瑰樊妯″瀷鐨勫湒褰㈡硶妾㈤銆丟oldfeld-Quanadt 妾㈤鑸� White 妾㈤锛屼娇鐢� WLS 娉曞皪鐣版柟宸€�(j矛n)琛屼慨姝�锛� 2锛庢噳(y墨ng)鐢ㄦ暀鏉� sugar.wf1 渚嬪仛鑷浉闂�(gu膩n)妯″瀷鐨勫湒褰㈡硶妾㈤鍜� DW 妾㈤锛屼娇鐢ㄧ鍏� 鍊€斿ェ鍏嬬壒杩唬娉曞皪鑷浉闂�(gu膩n)閫�(j矛n)琛屼慨姝�銆� 涓�銆佸椹楀師鐞� 鐣版柟宸€ф椹楋細鍦栧舰娉曟椹�銆丟oldfeld-Quanadt 妾㈤銆乄hite 妾㈤鑸囧姞娆�(qu谩n)鏈€ 灏忎簩涔樻硶锛� 鑷浉闂�(gu膩n)鎬ф椹楋細鍦栧舰娉曟椹�銆丏W 妾㈤鍜岀鍏嬪€€斿ェ鍏嬬壒杩唬娉曘€� 鍥�銆侀爯(y霉)鍌欑煡璀� Goldfeld-Quanadt 妾㈤銆乄hite 妾㈤銆佸姞娆�(qu谩n)鏈€灏忎簩涔樻硶銆丏W 妾㈤鍜岀鍏嬪€€斿ェ鍏� 鐗硅凯浠f硶銆� 浜�銆佸椹楁椹� 銆愭渚� 1銆� 鐣版柟宸€� 鍦ㄧ従(xi脿n)瀵︾稉(j墨ng)婵�(j矛)娲诲嫊涓�锛屾渶灏忎簩涔樻硶鐨勫熀鏈亣瀹氬苟闈為兘鑳芥豢瓒�锛屾湰妗堜緥灏囪◣璜栭毃 姗�(j墨)瑾ゅ樊閬曡儗鍩烘湰鍋囧畾鐨勪竴鍊嬫柟闈⑩€斺€旂暟鏂瑰樊鎬�銆傛湰妗堜緥灏囦粙绱癸細鐣版柟宸ā鍨嬬殑鍦� 褰㈡硶妾㈤銆丟oldfeld-Quanadt 妾㈤鑸� White 妾㈤锛涚暟鏂瑰樊妯″瀷鐨� WLS 娉曚慨姝�銆� 1.寤虹珛 Workfile 鍜屽皪璞�锛岄寗鍏ヨ畩閲忎汉鍙f暩(sh霉) X 鍜岄啱(y墨)鐧傛(j墨)妲�(g貌u)鏁�(sh霉) Y 2. 鍙冩暩(sh霉)浼拌▓ 3銆佹椹�?z膩i)锛板伔婕犳儥璁�?br/>锛�1锛夊湒褰㈡硶 鐢辫矾寰戯細Quick/Estimate Equation锛岄€�(j矛n)鍏� Equation Specification 绐楀彛锛� 閸靛叆鈥測 c x鈥�锛岀⒑瑾�(r猫n)骞垛€渙k鈥�锛屽緱妯f湰鍥炴浼拌▓绲�(ji茅)鏋�銆� 锛�2锛塆oldfeld-Quanadt 妾㈤ 灏嶈畩閲忓彇鍊兼帓搴忥紙鎸夐仦澧炴垨閬炴笡锛夈€傜洿鎺ュ湪宸ヤ綔鏂囦欢绐楀彛涓寜 Proc\Sort Current Page?,鍦ㄥ綀鍑虹殑灏嶈┍妗嗕腑杓稿叆 鍗冲彲(榛樿獚(r猫n)闋呮槸 Ascending锛堝崌搴忥級)銆� 鏈緥閬稿崌搴忔帓搴�锛岄€欐檪璁婇噺 鑸� 灏囦互 鎸夊崌搴忔帓搴�銆� 锛�3锛塛hite 妾㈤ 鐢卞湒 2.3.3 浼拌▓绲�(ji茅)鏋滐紝鎸夎矾寰� view/Residual tests/white heteroskedasticity锛坣o cross terms or cross terms锛�锛岄€�(j矛n)鍏� White 妾㈤銆� 鏍规摎(j霉) White 妾㈤涓紨鍔╁嚱鏁�(sh霉)鐨勬(g貌u)閫�锛屾渶鍚庝竴闋呯偤璁婇噺鐨勪氦鍙変箻绌嶉爡锛屽洜鐐烘湰渚嬬偤 涓€鍏冨嚱鏁�(sh霉)锛屾晠鐒′氦鍙変箻绌嶉爡锛屽洜姝ゆ噳(y墨ng)閬� no cross terms锛屽墖杓斿姪鍑芥暩(sh霉)鐐� 缍�(j墨ng)浼拌▓鍑虹従(xi脿n) White 妾㈤绲�(ji茅)鏋�銆� 4銆佺暟鏂瑰樊鎬х殑淇 鍦ㄩ亱鐢� WLS 娉曚及瑷堥亷绋嬩腑锛屾垜鍊戝垎鍒ラ伕鐢ㄤ簡娆�(qu谩n)鏁�(sh霉) 銆傛瑠(qu谩n)鏁�(sh霉)鐨勭敓鎴愰亷绋嬪涓�锛� 鐢卞湒 2.3.4锛屽湪灏嶈┍妗嗕腑鐨� Enter equation 铏曪紝鎸夊涓嬫牸寮忓垎鍒ラ嵉鍏ワ細 锛� 锛� 锛� 缍�(j墨ng)浼拌▓妾㈤鐧�(f膩)鐝�(xi脿n)鐢ㄦ瑠(qu谩n)鏁�(sh霉) 鐨勬晥鏋滄渶濂�銆備笅闈㈠儏绲﹀嚭鐢ㄦ瑠(qu谩n)鏁�(sh霉) 鐨勭祼(ji茅)鏋溿€� 銆愭渚� 2銆戣嚜鐩搁棞(gu膩n) 鍦ㄧ稉(j墨ng)婵�(j矛)绯荤当(t菕ng)涓�锛岀稉(j墨ng)婵�(j矛)璁婇噺鍓嶅悗鏈熶箣闁撳緢鍙兘鏈夐棞(gu膩n)鑱�(li谩n)锛屼娇寰楅毃姗�(j墨)瑾ゅ樊闋呬笉鑳芥豢 瓒崇劇鑷浉闂�(gu膩n)鐨勫亣瀹�銆傛湰妗堜緥灏囨帰瑷庨毃姗�(j墨)瑾ゅ樊闋呬笉婊胯冻鐒¤嚜鐩搁棞(gu膩n)鐨勫彜鍏稿亣瀹氭檪鐨勫弮 鏁�(sh霉)浼拌▓鍟忛銆傝憲閲嶈◣璜栬嚜鐩搁棞(gu膩n)妯″瀷鐨勫湒褰㈡硶妾㈤銆丏W 妾㈤锛岃垏绉戝厠鍊€斿ェ鍏嬬壒 杩唬娉曞皪鑷浉闂�(gu膩n)淇銆� 1.寤虹珛 Workfile 鍜屽皪璞★紝閷勫叆璁婇噺 鍜屼汉鍧囨秷璨绘敮鍑轰汉鍙f暩(sh霉) Y 2.鍙冩暩(sh霉)浼拌▓銆佹椹�?z膩i)锛板伔娣栭煹鍤揚(gu膩n)锛屼娇鐢ㄦ櫘閫氭渶灏忎簩涔樻硶浼拌▓娑堣不妯″瀷寰� 3.鑷浉闂�(gu膩n)鍟忛鐨勪慨姝� 鐐鸿В姹鸿嚜鐩搁棞(gu膩n)鍟忛锛岄伕鐢ㄧ鍏嬪€€斿ェ鍏嬬壒杩唬娉�銆傜敱寮� 2.3.5 鍙緱娈樺樊搴忓垪 et锛屽湪 EViews 涓�锛屾瘡娆″洖姝哥殑娈樺樊瀛樻斁鍦� resid 搴忓垪涓�锛岀偤浜嗗皪娈樺樊閫�(j矛n)琛屽洖姝稿垎 鏋�锛岄渶鐢熸垚鍛藉悕鐐� e 鐨勬畼宸簭鍒椼€傞粸鎿婂伐浣滄枃浠剁獥鍙e伐鍏锋瑒涓殑 Genr锛屽湪褰堝嚭 鐨勫皪瑭辨涓几鍏� 锛岄粸鎿� OK 寰楀埌娈樺樊搴忓垪 et銆� 缍�(j墨ng)寤g京宸垎鍚庢ǎ鏈閲忔渻娓涘皯 1 鍊�锛岀偤浜嗕繚璀夋ǎ鏈暩(sh霉)涓嶆笡灏戯紝鍙互浣跨敤鏅悐 鏂€旀韩鏂ò璁婃彌瑁�(b菙)鍏呯涓€鍊嬭娓€�锛屾柟娉曟槸 鍜� 銆� 瀹夊窘甯寖澶у(xu茅)缍�(j墨ng)婵�(j矛)绠$悊瀛�(xu茅)闄� 瀵� 椹� 鍫� 鍛� 瑾茬▼鍚嶇ū锛� 灏堟キ(y猫)鐝礆锛� 濮� 鍚嶏細 瀛�(xu茅) 铏燂細 鎸囧皫(d菐o)鏁欏斧锛� 瀵﹂鏃ユ湡锛� 瀛�(xu茅)鐢熷椹楀牨鍛� 涓€銆佸椹�?z膩i)搴�?br/>瀵� 椹� 鐩� 鐨� 浜�銆佸椹楀収(n猫i)瀹硅垏姝ラ 瀵﹂ 鍏�(n猫i)瀹� 瀵� 椹� 姝ラ 涓�銆佸椹楃祼(ji茅)鏋滆垏瑙i噵 鍥�銆佸椹楀皬绲�(ji茅)鑸囨寚灏�(d菐o)鏁欏斧瑭曢柋 瀵﹂灏忕祼(ji茅) 鎸囧皫(d菐o)鏁欏斧瑭曢柋 鎴愮妇瑭曞畾 鎸囧皫(d菐o)鏁欏斧 绨藉瓧 绨藉瓧鏃ユ湡
鍏嶈铂(z茅)鑱叉槑锛氭湰鏂囩郴杞�(zhu菐n)杓夎嚜缍�(w菐ng)绲�(lu貌)锛屽鏈変镜鐘�锛岃珛鑱�(li谩n)绯绘垜鍊戠珛鍗冲埅闄�锛屽彟锛氭湰鏂囧儏浠h〃浣滆€呭€嬩汉瑙€榛�锛岃垏鏈恫(w菐ng)绔欑劇闂�(gu膩n)銆傚叾鍘熷壍(chu脿ng)鎬т互鍙婃枃涓櫝杩版枃瀛楀拰鍏�(n猫i)瀹规湭缍�(j墨ng)鏈珯璀夊锛屽皪鏈枃浠ュ強鍏朵腑鍏ㄩ儴鎴栬€呴儴鍒嗗収(n猫i)瀹广€佹枃瀛楃殑鐪熷鎬�銆佸畬鏁存€�銆佸強鏅傛€ф湰绔欎笉浣滀换浣曚繚璀夋垨鎵胯锛岃珛璁€鑰呭儏浣滃弮鑰�锛屽苟璜嬭嚜琛屾牳瀵︾浉闂�(gu膩n)鍏�(n猫i)瀹广€�
|