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When it comes to the slowing economy, Ellen Spero isn鈥檛 biting her nails just yet. But the 47瞴ear瞣ld manicurist isn鈥檛 cutting, filing or polishing as many nails as she鈥檇 like to, either. Most of her clients spend 锛�12 to 锛�50 weekly, but last month two longtime customers suddenly stopped showing up. Spero blames the softening economy. 鈥淚鈥檓 a good economic indicator鈥�, she says. 鈥淚 provide a service that people can do without when they鈥檙e concerned about saving some dollars.鈥� So Spero is downscaling, shopping at middle brow Dillard鈥檚 department store near her suburban Cleveland home, instead of Neiman Marcus. 鈥淚 don鈥檛 know if other clients are going to abandon me, too,鈥� she says.

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All of this caused a crisis of confidence. Americans stopped taking prosperity for granted. They began to believe that their way of doing business was failing, and that their incomes would therefore shortly begin to fall as well. The mid 1980s brought one inquiry after another into the causes of America鈥檚 industrial decline. Their sometimes sensational findings were filled with warnings about the growing competition from overseas.

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Even before Alan Greenspan鈥檚 admission that America鈥檚 red hot economy is cooling, lots of working folks had already seen signs of the slowdown themselves. From car dealerships to Gap outlets, sales have been lagging for months as shoppers temper their spending. For retailers, who last year took in 24 percent of their revenue between Thanksgiving and Christmas, the cautious approach is coming at a crucial time. Already, experts say, holiday sales are off 7 percent from last year鈥檚 pace. But don鈥檛 sound any alarms just yet. Consumers seem only mildly concerned, not panicked, and many say they remain optimistic about the economy鈥檚 long 瞭erm prospects even as they do some modest belt tightening.

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