澶╂触鍟嗘キ(y猫)澶у(xu茅) 2021骞寸ⅸ澹爺绌剁敓鎷涚敓鑰冭│锛堝垵瑭︼級鑷懡椤岀鐩€冭│澶х侗

绉戠洰浠ｇ⒓锛�817 绉戠洰鍚嶇ū锛氭鐜囪珫鑸囨暩(sh霉)鐞嗙当(t菕ng)瑷�

涓€銆佽€冭│瑕佹眰

銆婃鐜囪珫鑸囨暩(sh霉)鐞嗙当(t菕ng)瑷堛€嬭€冭│鏄偤鎷涙敹绲�(t菕ng)瑷堝(xu茅)琛�(sh霉)纰╁＋鐢熻€岃ō(sh猫)缃殑鍏锋湁閬告嫈鎬ц唱(zh矛)

鐨勮€冭│绉戠洰銆傚叾鐩殑鏄瀛�(xu茅)銆佸叕骞冲拰鏈夋晥鍦版脯瑭﹁€冪敓鏄惁鍏峰倷鏀昏畝绲�(t菕ng)瑷堝(xu茅)瀛�(xu茅)琛�(sh霉)纰�

澹(xu茅)浣嶆墍蹇呴爤鐨勫熀鏈礌璩�(zh矛)銆佸熀鏈兘鍔涘拰鍩归(y菐ng)娼涜兘锛屼互渚块伕鎷斿叿鏈夌櫦(f膩)灞�?ji茅)鎽课﹁啲?y艒u)绉€

浜烘墠鍏ュ(xu茅)锛岀偤鍦嬪鐨勭稉(j墨ng)婵熷缓瑷�(sh猫)鍩归(y菐ng)鍏锋湁鑹ソ鑱锋キ(y猫)閬撳痉銆佹硶鍒惰蹇靛拰鍦嬮殯瑕栭噹銆佸叿

鏈夎純寮峰垎鏋愬晱椤岃垏瑙ｆ焙瀵﹂殯鍟忛鑳藉姏鐨勯珮灞ゆ绲�(t菕ng)瑷堝皥妤�(y猫)浜烘墠銆傛湰瑾茬▼鑰冭│涓昏娓�

瑭﹁€冪敓灏嶇当(t菕ng)瑷堝(xu茅)鐨勫熀鏈師鐞嗗拰鏂规硶锛屼互鍙婄浉闂�(gu膩n)姒傜巼璜栫煡璀樼殑鎺屾彙绋嬪害锛屾脯瑭﹂亱鐢�

绲�(t菕ng)瑷堟ā鍨嬪垎鏋愬闅涙暩(sh霉)鎿�(j霉)鍜岃В閲嬪垎鏋愮祼(ji茅)鏋滅殑鍩烘湰鑳藉姏銆傚叿楂旇姹傚涓嬶細

锛堜竴锛夋鐜囪珫閮ㄥ垎

1. 闅ㄦ浜嬩欢鑸囨鐜�

鍦ㄧ悊瑙ｄ簨浠跺強姒傜巼鍩烘湰姒傚康鐨勫熀绀�(ch菙)涓�锛屾帉鎻′簨浠剁殑闂�(gu膩n)绯昏垏閬嬬畻锛岀悊瑙ｆ浠舵

鐜囩殑姒傚康锛屾帉鎻℃鐜囩殑鍩烘湰鎬ц唱(zh矛)锛岀悊瑙ｄ簨浠剁殑鐛ㄧ珛鎬ф蹇�锛岀悊瑙ｇ崹绔嬮噸寰�(f霉)瑭﹂鐨�

姒傚康锛涙帉鎻″叏姒傜巼鍏紡鍙婅矟钁夋柉鍏紡锛屽苟鏈冮噰鐢ㄩ€欎簺鍏紡瑙ｆ焙瀵﹂殯鍟忛銆�

2.闅ㄦ璁婇噺鍙婂叾鍒嗗竷

鍦ㄧ悊瑙ｉ毃姗熻畩閲忓強鍏跺垎甯冪殑姒傚康鐨勫熀绀�(ch菙)涓�锛屾帉鎻￠毃姗熻畩閲忓垎甯冪殑鎬ц唱(zh矛)锛屾渻瑷�

绠楄垏闅ㄦ璁婇噺鐩歌伅(li谩n)绯荤殑浜嬩欢鐨勬鐜囷紱鐞嗚В闅ㄦ璁婇噺鐨勬暩(sh霉)瀛�(xu茅)鏈熸湜銆佹柟宸�銆佹婧栧樊鐨�

姒傚康鍙婃€ц唱(zh矛)锛涙帉鎻′簩闋呭垎甯�銆佹硦鏉撅紙Poisson锛夊垎甯冨強鍏舵噳(y墨ng)鐢�锛屾帉鎻℃鎱�(t脿i)鍒嗗竷銆�

鍧囧嫽鍒嗗竷銆佹寚鏁�(sh霉)鍒嗗竷鍙婂叾鎳�(y墨ng)鐢�锛屾渻姹傜啊鍠毃姗熻畩閲忓嚱鏁�(sh霉)鐨勫垎甯�銆�

3. 澶氱董闅ㄦ璁婇噺鍙婂叾鍒嗗竷

鐞嗚В闅ㄦ璁婇噺鐨勮伅(li谩n)鍚堝垎甯冪殑姒傚康鍜屽熀鏈€ц唱(zh矛)锛岀悊瑙ｉ倞闅涘垎甯冨拰姊濅欢鍒嗗竷鐨勬

蹇碉紝骞舵渻鐢ㄨ伅(li谩n)鍚堟鐜囧垎甯冩眰鏈夐棞(gu膩n)浜嬩欢鐨勬鐜�锛涚悊瑙ｉ毃姗熻畩閲忕殑鐛ㄧ珛鎬ф蹇�锛屾帉鎻�

闆㈡暎鍜岄€ｇ簩(x霉)鍨嬮毃姗熻畩閲忕崹绔嬬殑姊濅欢锛涙帉鎻′簩缍鎱�(t脿i)鍒嗗竷鐨勬€ц唱(zh矛)锛屾渻姹傜啊鍠缍毃

姗熻畩閲忓嚱鏁�(sh霉)鐨勫垎甯�锛屾渻瑷堢畻闅ㄦ鍚戦噺鐨勫崝(xi茅)鏂瑰樊銆佺浉闂�(gu膩n)绯绘暩(sh霉)锛涙帉鎻″崝(xi茅)鏂瑰樊銆佺浉闂�(gu膩n)绯�

鏁�(sh霉)鐨勬€ц唱(zh矛)锛庢渻鍒╃敤浠ヤ笂鍏�(n猫i)瀹瑰垎鏋愬拰瑙ｆ焙瀵﹂殯鍟忛銆�

4. 澶ф暩(sh霉)瀹氬緥鑸囦腑蹇冩サ闄愬畾鐞�

鐞嗚В闅ㄦ璁婇噺搴忓垪鐨勫叐绋敹鏂傛€у強鍏堕棞(gu膩n)绯�锛涚悊瑙ｇ壒寰佸嚱鏁�(sh霉)鐨勬蹇�锛屾帉鎻＄壒寰�

鍑芥暩(sh霉)鐨勬€ц唱(zh矛)锛涚悊瑙ｇ崹绔嬪悓鍒嗗竷闅ㄦ璁婇噺搴忓垪鐨勫ぇ鏁�(sh霉)瀹氬緥锛屾帉鎻＄崹绔嬪悓鍒嗗竷涓嬬殑涓�

蹇冩サ闄愬畾鐞嗗強鍏舵噳(y墨ng)鐢�銆�

锛堜簩锛夋暩(sh霉)鐞嗙当(t菕ng)瑷堥儴鍒�

1. 绲�(t菕ng)瑷堥噺鍙婂叾鍒嗗竷

鍦ㄧ悊瑙ｇ附楂旇垏妯ｆ湰銆佹娊妯�銆佹娊妯ｅ垎甯�銆佸弮鏁�(sh霉)绛夊熀鏈蹇电殑鍩虹(ch菙)涓�锛屾帉鎻″父鐢�

鐨勭当(t菕ng)瑷堥噺鍙婃娊妯ｅ垎甯�锛涗簡瑙ｇ稉(j墨ng)椹楀垎甯冨嚱鏁�(sh霉)鍙婃牸閲屾倍绉戝畾鐞嗭紱瀛�(xu茅)鏈冪洿鏂瑰湒銆佽帠钁夊湒

绛夊父瑕嬬殑妯ｆ湰鏁�(sh霉)鎿�(j霉)鐨勫睍绀烘柟娉�锛涙帉鎻′笁澶у垎甯�锛涗簡瑙ｆ搴忕当(t菕ng)瑷堥噺鍙婂叾鍒嗗竷锛屼簡瑙�

鍏呭垎绲�(t菕ng)瑷堥噺鐨勫惈缇�銆�

2. 鍙冩暩(sh霉)浼拌▓

鎺屾彙鐭╀及瑷�銆佹渶澶т技鐒朵及瑷堢瓑榛炰及瑷堟柟娉�锛涚悊瑙ｇ劇鍋忔€�銆佹湁鏁堟€с€佷竴鑷存€х瓑

榛炰及瑷堢殑甯哥敤瑭曞児妯欐簴锛涚悊瑙ｅ拰鎺屾彙鍧囨柟瑾ゅ樊鍙婂叾瑷堢畻锛涗簡瑙ｄ竴鑷存渶灏忔柟宸劇鍋�

浼拌▓銆丆ramer-Rao涓嶇瓑寮�锛涗簡瑙� Bayes浼拌▓鐨勫熀鏈€濇兂鍜屾柟娉�锛涙帉鎻″柈鍊嬫鎱�(t脿i)

绺介珨銆佸叐鍊嬫鎱�(t脿i)绺介珨鍗€(q奴)闁撲及瑷堢殑鍩烘湰鎬濇兂鍜屾柟娉�銆�

3. 鍋囪ō(sh猫)妾㈤

鐞嗚В鍜屾帉鎻″亣瑷�(sh猫)妾㈤鐨勫熀鏈€濇兂鍜屾椹燂紝鎺屾彙鍠€嬫鎱�(t脿i)绺介珨鍧囧€煎拰鏂瑰樊鐨勫亣

瑷�(sh猫)妾㈤鏂规硶锛屾帉鎻″叐鍊嬫鎱�(t脿i)绺介珨鍧囧€煎樊鍜屾柟宸瘮鐨勫亣瑷�(sh猫)妾㈤鏂规硶锛涚悊瑙ｅ拰鎺屾彙浼�

鐒舵瘮妾㈤鐨勬€濇兂鍜屾柟娉�锛涙帉鎻″垎甯冪殑 c2 鎿悎鍎�(y艒u)搴︽椹椾互鍙婂垪鑱�(li谩n)琛ㄧ殑鐛ㄧ珛鎬ф椹楋紱

浜嗚В姝ｆ厠(t脿i)鎬ф椹楃殑甯哥敤鏂规硶锛涘苟鏈冮噰鐢ㄤ互涓婃柟娉曞垎鏋愬拰瑙ｆ焙瀵﹂殯鍟忛銆�

4. 鏂瑰樊鍒嗘瀽鑸囧洖姝稿垎鏋�

鐞嗚В鏂瑰樊鍒嗘瀽鐨勫熀鏈€濇兂锛屾帉鎻″柈鍥犵礌鏂瑰樊鍒嗘瀽鐨勫熀鏈柟娉�锛涗簡瑙ｅ閲嶆瘮杓�

鐨勬€濇兂鍜屾柟娉曪紱鎺屾彙鏂瑰樊榻婃€у垎鏋愮殑鍩烘湰鏂规硶锛涙帉鎻′竴鍏冪窔鎬у洖姝告ā鍨嬬殑鍙冩暩(sh霉)浼�

瑷�銆佸洖姝告柟绋嬪拰鍥炴绯绘暩(sh霉)鐨勯’钁楁€ф椹楁柟娉�锛屽苟鏈冮噰鐢ㄦ墍寤虹珛妯″瀷閫茶浼拌▓鍜岄爯(y霉)

娓紱瀛�(xu茅)鏈冧互涓婃ā鍨嬪拰鏂规硶鐨勮粺浠跺鐝�(xi脿n)锛屾渻灏嶈粺浠剁殑杓稿嚭绲�(ji茅)鏋滈€茶瑙ｉ噵锛涙渻閲囩敤浠�

涓婃柟娉曞垎鏋愬拰瑙ｆ焙瀵﹂殯鍟忛銆�

浜�銆佽€冭│褰㈠紡鍙婃檪闁�

鑰冭│褰㈠紡鐐洪枆鍗风瓎瑭�锛涜€冭│鏅傞枔 150鍒嗛悩銆�

涓�銆佽€冭│鍏�(n猫i)瀹�

锛堜竴锛夋鐜囪珫閮ㄥ垎

1. 闅ㄦ浜嬩欢鑸囨鐜�

(1) 闅ㄦ浜嬩欢鍙婂叾閬嬬畻

(2) 姒傜巼鐨勫畾缇╁強鍏剁⒑瀹氭柟娉�

(3) 姒傜巼鐨勬€ц唱(zh矛)

(4) 姊濅欢姒傜巼鑸囩崹绔嬫€э紝鍏ㄦ鐜囧叕寮忓強璨濊憠鏂叕寮�

2.闅ㄦ璁婇噺鍙婂叾鍒嗗竷

(1) 闅ㄦ璁婇噺鍙婂叾鍒嗗竷

(2) 闅ㄦ璁婇噺鐨勬暩(sh霉)瀛�(xu茅)鏈熸湜鑸囨柟宸�

(3) 甯哥敤鐨勯洟鏁ｅ垎甯冨拰閫ｇ簩(x霉)鍒嗗竷

(4) 闅ㄦ璁婇噺鍑芥暩(sh霉)鐨勫垎甯�

3.澶氱董闅ㄦ璁婇噺鍙婂叾鍒嗗竷

(1) 澶氱董闅ㄦ璁婇噺鍙婂叾鑱�(li谩n)鍚堝垎甯�

(2) 閭婇殯鍒嗗竷鑸囬毃姗熻畩閲忕殑鐛ㄧ珛鎬�

(3) 澶氱董闅ㄦ璁婇噺鍑芥暩(sh霉)鐨勫垎甯�

(4) 澶氱董闅ㄦ璁婇噺鐨勭壒寰佹暩(sh霉)

(5) 姊濅欢鍒嗗竷鑸囨浠舵湡鏈�

4.澶ф暩(sh霉)瀹氬緥鑸囦腑蹇冩サ闄愬畾鐞�

(1) 闅ㄦ璁婇噺搴忓垪鐨勫叐绋敹鏂傛€�

(2) 鐗瑰緛鍑芥暩(sh霉)

(3) 澶ф暩(sh霉)瀹氬緥鑸囦腑蹇冩サ闄愬畾鐞�

锛堜簩锛�銆佹暩(sh霉)鐞嗙当(t菕ng)瑷堥儴鍒�

1. 绲�(t菕ng)瑷堥噺鍙婂叾鍒嗗竷

鑰冩牳涓昏鍏�(n猫i)瀹瑰寘鎷�锛�

(1) 绺介珨鑸囧弮鏁�(sh霉)

(2) 妯ｆ湰鏁�(sh霉)鎿�(j霉)鐨勬暣鐞嗚垏灞曠ず

(3) 绲�(t菕ng)瑷堥噺鑸囨娊妯ｅ垎甯�

(4) 涓夊ぇ鎶芥ǎ鍒嗗竷

(5) 鍏呭垎绲�(t菕ng)瑷堥噺

2.鍙冩暩(sh霉)浼拌▓

(1) 榛炰及瑷堝強鍏惰⿻鍍规婧�

(2) 鏈€灏忔柟宸劇鍋忎及瑷�